Box Office Guru Preview: Black vs. Sandler in Comedy Showdown

Kung Fu Panda looks to Mess With the Zohan.

In limited release, Picturehouse will platform its Oscar-nominated historical epic Mongol in four theaters in New York and Los Angeles. The subtitled story of the rise of Genghis Khan features a cast assembled from across Asia and is directed by the acclaimed Russian filmmaker Sergei Bodrov. Though it lost out to The Counterfeiters in the foreign language race this year, it still is being aggressively marketed to arthouse moviegoers and fans of world cinema. Mongol expands to major markets on June 20.

Sergei Bodrov's Mongol

Last weekend, the 179 years of life experience of Parker-Cattrall-Davis-Nixon pulled an upset victory over the 190 years of Ford-Spielberg-Lucas as it was truly no country for old men. But the boys will try to beat out the girls this time around for the title of top holdover in what will certainly be a much closer race.

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull will face some competition for young men from Zohan while families will be tempted away by Paramount's own Panda. But adult men will still be focused on the Communist-fighting whip man so a 45% drop could result leaving a $24M frame. That would propel the cume to a stunning $254M after 18 days.

Sex and the City shocked the industry with its stellar $56.8M bow last weekend. Also impressive were the sturdy grosses of $5.5M a piece on Monday and Tuesday this week. But the sizable 34% Friday-to-Saturday tumble showed how much demand was absorbed on that first day which was essentially an after-work girls-night-out for fans. Word-of-mouth has been good, but so much of the target audience has already been reached so a big drop is likely even though the new releases are not direct competitors. Panda however will take many thirtysomething and fortysomething mothers out of the picture. A 60% fall could occur giving the New Line-Warner Bros. flick roughly $23M - still a full-figured number. That would give Sex a fabulous $100M in just ten days.

Universal's The Strangers was a surprise hit last weekend posting the best horror movie opening of 2008. But a fast fade is likely so sales could slump by 55% to about $9.5M. That would give the Rogue production a solid $37M in ten days. Iron Man is steadily closing in on that triple-century mark. The super hero smash should dip by 35% to around $9M boosting the cume to $290M.

LAST YEAR: The summer of threequels moved forward with Ocean's Thirteen which bowed at number one with $36.1M for Warner Bros. on its way to $117.2M domestically and $311M worldwide. That put the bad boys behind the $363M of Twelve and the $444M of Eleven. Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End dropped to second after two weeks on top with $21.1M breaking the quarter-billion mark in just over 17 days. Universal's Knocked Up, the first of two pregnancy comedy hits in 2007 to sail past $140M, followed with $19.6M in its sophomore frame. Sony's animated penguin film Surf's Up debuted in fourth with a respectable $17.6M leading to a $58.9M final. Rival toon Shrek the Third sat in fifth with $15.3M. The horror sequel Hostel Part II struggled in its opening weekend taking in $8.2M or less than half the bow of its predecessor a year earlier. Lionsgate reached $17.6M.

Author: Gitesh Pandya,


Some guy you dont know

Bruce Campbell

I prey to god Black wins.

Jun 5 - 05:38 PM


EthanEverett Burns

Woah man...Box Office Guru is totally underestimating Sandler. And they have the stupidest reasons to do so too..."this movie won't do as well because Adan's changing his voice"? And really? A "long title" and a "not-so-macho storyline" will be problems? I would think fans of Sandler would think that the silly long title is hilarious and the plot is outrageously stupidly funny. So is the voice! Those are the worst reasons to say why this movie won't do well.
Have you guys even been in an auditorium that shows the preview for "Zohan"? Everyone, even non-Sandler fans, cracks up everytime. It's one of those "I definitely wouldn't mind going with my friends to see it on a Friday since I'm out of school and there's really never anything else to do. It'll be fun!" movies. MARK MY WORDS this movie will do very good.

This IS going to be a big weekend though, making tons of cash. ZOHAN and PANDA will do very, very well while Indy 4 will reclaim the top spot and SATC will fall (mr.) BIG!:P

1. KUNG FU PANDA - $56.4 million
2. YOU DON'T MESS WITH THE ZOHAN - $49.8 million
3. INDIANA JONES and the KINGDOM of the CRYSTAL SKULL - $23.2 million
4. SEX and the CITY - $16.8 million
5. THE STRANGERS - $10.8 million
6. IRON MAN - $8.8 million


Jun 5 - 06:08 PM


Brian Dunn

For the dude that predicted Sex and the City will make 16.8 million, that would mean it would drop by 70 percent from last week. No film ever drops that much so be ready to be wrong. Sex and the City will have repeat viewers since it has such a strong following. I'm going to predict that it will make 33 million.

Jun 7 - 10:52 AM

mariner fan

Lucas Rydell

seeeing kung fu panda and zohan going to be 1 funny weekend

Jun 5 - 06:08 PM


Colin Troy

I think the Zohan and Panda predictions are pretty accurate and they will both be big hits but I'm telling you, Wall-E will be the year's top grosser.

Jun 5 - 07:18 PM


Matthew Burge

Kung Fu Panda is going to win. I was initially against it but am reconsidering, and Zohan CANNOT be worse than Chuck and Larry. It just can't.

I don't know about top grosser, filmboy22, but Wall-E has a lot going for it and we all know it will be #1 its opening weekend. Though following on the heels of Ratatouille is no easy feat when it comes to the critics. That movie was pure cinematic magic, and I'm hoping it will at least match Iron Man's tomatometer.

Jun 5 - 10:19 PM


EthanEverett Burns

Actually Splitter, although I know you probably didn't know this, Wall-E is getting some pretty incredible advance reviews. The film is being called magnificent, powerful and magical. I think it'll definitely get over 90% on it's tomatometer.

But top grosser? No way. It'll reach $295 million tops. No movie this year will beat "Iron Man" sorry to say...the only ones that might reach close to it are "Dark Knight", "Incredible Hulk" (it's getting excellent word-of-mouth and after seeing "Iron Man" a few billion times, people would like the next Marvel movie that ties the Avengers together) and yes, "Wall-E" but all three will be off about 20-30 million from Iron Man's total gross, which should round out at $318 million. Indy won't reach Iron Man's gross either but it'll be the closest one to do so, going out at probably about $307 million.


Jun 5 - 11:41 PM


Ryan Litchfield

@Bruce Campbell
I prey to God you die.

Panda will definitely get the number one spot this weekend, while Zohan will probably rest in second. I, like many others, really hope SATC bombs worse than Speed Racer this weekend. I was forced to watch it this week and could not help but feel like I was being tortured in a similar fashion to the way Alex DeLarge was in A Clockwork Orange.

Also, pretty sure Wall-E won't come close to being the number one grosser of the year, but I must know where you came up with that guess. I don't see it being as big as it could be due to the fact Panda coming out just 3 weeks before Wall-E as well. I'm not so sure parents would be so willing to fork out the extra cash to see two children's movies in one month, but you never know. Maybe it's just me, but I don't see what all the fuss is about with Wall-E, sure he's adorable, but I just can't understand why anyone would be even the slightest bit excited about it especially with all the other huge summer films coming out in the next couple of months

Jun 5 - 11:59 PM

Some guy you dont know

Bruce Campbell

You don't have the balls to kill me yourself so you get god to do it for you? *****. Be a man and kill me with your own hands. Coward.

Jun 6 - 04:42 AM

Bloody Mathias

Mathias N/A

Panda - $50 million

Zohan - $40 million

Sex & The City - $29 million

Indiana Jones - $ 24 million

The Strangers - $ 9 million

Iron Man - $8 million

People have been underestimating Sex this entire time and they still continue to do so. Not me, i'm guessing it tops Indy again this weekend. As for wall-E

Opening weekend - $60 million

Total Domestic Gross - $250 million

Jun 6 - 01:13 AM

Some guy you dont know

Bruce Campbell

You don't have the balls to kill me yourself so you get god to do it for you? *****. Be a man and kill me with your own hands. Coward.

Jun 6 - 04:42 AM


Ben Halladay

Panda - $51 million

Zohan - $46 million

Sex & The City - $28 million

Indiana Jones - $ 22 million

The Strangers - $ 10 million

Iron Man - $8 million

Jun 6 - 07:17 AM


anonymous anonymous

Let's see, Panda might set the record...for animated films...but not sequels...from dreamworks.

Got enough qualifiers there?

I think Panda will come out on top easily, it will do very well. The big question this summer is Iron Man or Indy. I'm definitely rooting for the former since it's simply a far better movie. Iron Man has had great legs, but Indy got such a boost from its opening. At this point, I think it could go either way, we'll get a better picture after this weekend - how much will each continue to hold up?

Can't wait for WALL*E and Dark Night, but I'm skeptical that either has a shot at being the top grosser this summer.

Jun 6 - 09:32 AM


Josh Hines


Kung Fu Panda- 58.2 Mil

Zohan- 45.5 Mil

Sex and the City- 28.4 Mil

Indiana Jones 4- 25.1 Mil

The Strangers- 11.2 Mil

Iron Man- 8.3 Mil

Prince Caspian- 7.8 Mil

What Happens in Vegas- 3.9 Mil

Speed Racer- 1.6 Mil

Baby Mama- 1.4 Mil

Made of Honor- 1.0 Mil

Jun 6 - 10:52 AM


Greg Guro

When the hell is Made of Honor going away? At the 12 screen theater near me, it actually occupies an entire theater's showings.


Jun 6 - 11:36 AM


jack giroux

Uhhhh... I dont really plan on seeing Zohan unless I have a really boaring Summer Day and I have seen all the other movies I want to see.
My Predictions
Kung Fu Panda- 62 Million Overall- 158 Million
Zohan- 38 Million Overall- 108 Million
Indy- 20 Million Overall- 320 Million
Sex & City- 15 million Overall- 122 Million
Next Week
Incredible Hulk- 75 Million Overall- 165 Million
The Happening- 18-25 Million Overall 55 Million

Jun 6 - 02:58 PM


jack giroux

Im definately going to see Panda this weekend though.

Jun 6 - 02:59 PM


Brian Dunn

For the dude that predicted Sex and the City will make 16.8 million, that would mean it would drop by 70 percent from last week. No film ever drops that much so be ready to be wrong. Sex and the City will have repeat viewers since it has such a strong following. I'm going to predict that it will make 33 million.

Jun 7 - 10:52 AM


EthanEverett Burns

Hey sorry, forgot to give my final updated predictions. I usually only post all my predictions on's Weekend Warrior and didn't post my updated ones here.

I posted this on ComingSoon!'s Weekend Warrior June 6-8 column on Friday afternoon so no, I didn't update these AFTER yesterday's numbers came in.

1. Kung Fu Panda - $56.9 million (up .5 million)
2. You Don't Mess with the Zohan - $46.7 million (down 3.1 million)
3. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $23.9 million (up .7 million)
4. Sex and the City - $18 million (up 1.6 million sad to say...what has this pathetic feeble-minded female world come to?)
5. The Strangers - $11.1 million (up .3 million)
6. Iron Man - $8.5 million (down .3 million)

I also posted these predictions earlier on that site:
Panda's total will round out to $188 million
Zohan will end at $122 million
Indiana Jones will finish off at $307 million
Sex and the City will die off at $123 million
The Strangers will end it's total at $57 million
Iron Man will finish at $318 will be the movie total to beat this year.


Jun 7 - 01:41 PM


noel ortiz


Jun 7 - 02:16 PM


noel ortiz


Jun 7 - 02:16 PM


Greg Guro

I hope JokerBoy is right about The Happening doing poorly.

Friday Estimates from BoxOfficeMojo

4,114 $20,000,000

3,462 $14,850,000

New Line

3,325 $7,300,000


4,190 $6,540,000

Rogue Pictures

2,477 $3,100,000


2,931 $2,160,000

Buena Vista

3,065 $1,675,000


2,366 $1,140,000


922 $267,000

Sony / Columbia

740 $263,000

Jun 7 - 04:11 PM


Branches Partycat

As much as I want Sandler to come out on top, I'm afraid this isn't going to be the case. So many people have complimented Black's new movie, Kung-fu Panda and I'm pretty sure it will come out as the victor in this little competition.

Jun 22 - 03:24 PM

What's Hot On RT

Box Office Wrapup
Box Office Wrapup

Captain America Triumphs Again


175 cosplay pictures


Picture gallery of stoners in film

<em>If I Stay</em>
If I Stay

Chloe Moretz goes out-of-body

Find us on:                 
Help | About | Jobs | Critics Submission | Press | API | Licensing | Mobile