Box Office Guru Wrapup: Bourne Beats Bart for Box Office Crown

Good night, Springden. There will be no encore.

For the second straight weekend, a pair of flops aimed at teens opened in the number nine and ten spots with averages of less than $3,000. Paramount's Andy Samberg comedy Hot Rod debuted to an estimated $5M from 2,607 theaters for a dismal $1,924 average. Lionsgate grossed an estimated $4.3M for its new preteen pic Bratz resulting in a mild $2,856 average from 1,509 playdates.


Jennifer Lopez and Marc Anthony teamed up for the biopic El Cantante which debuted well in a limited national bow with an estimated $3.3M from 542 theaters for a solid $6,004 average. The Picturehouse release about the life of Salsa pioneer Hector Lavoe earned lackluster reviews from critics. Receiving better notices was the period drama Becoming Jane which bowed in only 100 theaters to an estimated $1M for a strong $10,100 average. Starring Anne Hathaway as Jane Austen, the Miramax title expands to more markets in the weeks ahead.


Four films fell from the top ten over the weekend. The animated comedy Ratatouille from Disney and Pixar dropped by 46% in its sixth frame to an estimated $4M boosting the cume to $188.3M. Though loved by critics, the rodent picture has not been living up to Pixar standards and should end its domestic run right around the $200M mark making it the company's lowest-grossing hit since 1998's A Bug's Life which took in $162.8M.


Fox's action sequel Live Free or Die Hard shot up an estimated $2.2M, tumbling 61%, and put its total at $130.2M. A domestic final of about $135M seems likely while the pic's global gross of $309M will continue to climb rapidly over the course of the summer.


Also suffering sharp declines were the sophomores I Know Who Killed Me and Who's Your Caddy? which collected $1.2M and $1.1M, respectively. Lindsay Lohan's latest box office underachiever crumbled 67% and has taken in just $6.2M in ten days with a pathetic $8M final likely. The golf comedy fell 60% to a ten-day cume of only $4.8M and looks to end its run with a measly $7M.


The top ten films grossed an estimated $158.8M which was up a solid 37% from last year when Talladega Nights opened at number one with $47M; and up a remarkable 62% from 2005 when The Dukes of Hazzard debuted in the top spot with $30.7M.

Source: Box Office Guru

Comments

Scarborough Fair

Kyle Beaudette

This has been a fantastic summer at the movies.

Aug 5 - 09:01 PM

kendrith1975

Ken Tsoi

So my initial predicted 70% dropoff wasn't as far off as I thought, and how wrong boxofficeguru forecasted ULTIMATUM's opening. Most of us here got it right that it will open to at least over 60 million.

Boxofficeguru, you need to stop generalizing things! We know you got a busy schedule to think and write more in-depth analysis, but your reasonings behind your prediction for ULTIMATUM's opening is very contradictory. You need to do a better job on your RUSH HOUR 3 prediction now, or you will lose credibility!

Aug 5 - 09:02 PM

bookworm1994

Dillon James

Amen. I can't stand these people who think Box Office Guru is God. NO I'M NOT BEGGIN FOR AN ARGUMENT, PEOPLE.

Aug 5 - 09:15 PM

kendrith1975

Ken Tsoi

Bookworm1994, I wish you have something to add to this discussion, because nobody is God when it comes to box office forecasting. Rather, we want more intelligent analysis, and it is just plain stupid for anybody to make a prediction that contradicts his own rationale, and that was what boxofficeguru did when he predict a 55 million opening for ULTIMATUM when everything he mentioned actually point to a much stronger weekend (SUPREMACY opened to 52.5 million in 2004).

These discussion boards is supposedly our comments towards boxofficeguru's predictions and his thoughts. If we do not agree with him, we certainly can post counter arguments.
Perhaps he may even 'copy' some of the opinions here for his future reference. Who knows?!

Boxofficeguru is certainly not god, hence I keep pointing his errors. Rather, he constantly shows us that any of us can be box office analysts, plus need a little bit of luck too when you do not have the time to watch movies.

It's all about consistency of his forecasting!

Aug 6 - 06:43 AM

kendrith1975

Ken Tsoi

Oops, when I mentioned 70% dropoff on my last post, I was referring to my initial prediction for the SIMPSONS MOVIE's sophomore weekend dropoff.

Now I am expecting RUSH HOUR 3 to open weeker than RUSH HOUR 2. This one could go either way. If audiences are hungry for Chris Tucker due to a 6-year abesence from the big screen, may I say a 68 million opening identical to its predecessor? If the love is gone, then maybe a 57 million opening? Too early to tell, we'll see!

Aug 5 - 09:15 PM

bookworm1994

Dillon James

Amen. I can't stand these people who think Box Office Guru is God. NO I'M NOT BEGGIN FOR AN ARGUMENT, PEOPLE.

Aug 5 - 09:15 PM

kendrith1975

Ken Tsoi

Bookworm1994, I wish you have something to add to this discussion, because nobody is God when it comes to box office forecasting. Rather, we want more intelligent analysis, and it is just plain stupid for anybody to make a prediction that contradicts his own rationale, and that was what boxofficeguru did when he predict a 55 million opening for ULTIMATUM when everything he mentioned actually point to a much stronger weekend (SUPREMACY opened to 52.5 million in 2004).

These discussion boards is supposedly our comments towards boxofficeguru's predictions and his thoughts. If we do not agree with him, we certainly can post counter arguments.
Perhaps he may even 'copy' some of the opinions here for his future reference. Who knows?!

Boxofficeguru is certainly not god, hence I keep pointing his errors. Rather, he constantly shows us that any of us can be box office analysts, plus need a little bit of luck too when you do not have the time to watch movies.

It's all about consistency of his forecasting!

Aug 6 - 06:43 AM

Metafact

Jane Holt

Scarborough Fair, I must respectfully disagree. This hasn't been the best summer for films. The May threequels were all major disappointments, Evan Almighty was downright terrible, Ocean's Thirteen was forgettable, and I'm sorry, but when a movie directed by Michael-friggin-Bay is touted as one of the summer's better films, you know you're in trouble.

With that said, I will admit that there have been some surprisingly great summer flicks as well, including Knocked Up, Live Free or Die Hard, Ratatouille, Rescue Dawn, and The Bourne Ultimatum. Even The Simpsons Movie was pretty decent considering how poor the show has become.

This has been a decent summer at the movies, but fantastic? I don't know about that...

Aug 5 - 09:52 PM

kishor197

Kishore Reddy

I think he meant in terms of box-office performance.

Aug 6 - 04:03 AM

kendrith1975

Ken Tsoi

In terms of its critical reception, OCEAN'S THIRTEEN is satisfying to an extent, so it is not really forgettable, unless you are not a fan of the franchise to begin with.

I think we do not have any huge misfires so far this summer. Even EVAN ALMIGHTY manage to get close to the 100 million mark, and it is certainly not bombing like AROUND THE WORLD IN 80 DAYS or KINGDOM OF HEAVEN did a few years ago.

However, one can only just tell how poorly the arthouse flicks has been doing all summer to prove that regular moviegoers are indeed very satisfied with mainstream Hollywood this summer! When so many of Hollywood's movies are getting the same high critical approval as some of the best reviewed indie flicks of this summer, what will audiences choose? Of course they will choose to embrace the bigger budgeted pictures!
This is not something that is healthy for the business, but it is reality. The only mildly succesful indie pics so far that I can think of is WAITRESS and SICKO, but the former lost momentum right when everybody were criticizing the May 3quels, while the latter did decent documentary business, it will not top 30 million.

Instead, we got a slew of indie misfires that include SUNSHINE and RESCUE DAWN, movies that receive great reviews but got tepid public reaction even when considering its minimal platform release. RESCUE DAWN's sophomore weekend, which faces the BOURNE ULTIMATUM's debut weekend, crashed by over 60% from its already mediocre start. And TALK TO ME's 3rd weekend average of less than $3500 per screen means the movie will top out at no more than 8 million.

This summer teaches us that when Hollywood is giving the public what it likes, and I also mean 'upscale' audiences here, then even the great indie flicks will suffer!

Aug 6 - 10:30 AM

kendrith1975

Ken Tsoi

Just briefly add that TRANSFORMERS has a lot of passionate fans, and obviously many moviegoers including myself enjoyed the movie (but most people who like the movie, including myself, agree that the final act was very unsatisfying and almost tarnish the entire movie, just like SPIDERMAN 3's final act did to that movie). I would not readily call TRANSFORMERS as one of the best movies of this summer when so many other movies got much more raver reviews and support, if not actual ticket sales. And also, it felt strange that the highly criticized SPIDERMAN 3 got overall better reviews and higher grosses than TRANSFORMERS, and almost guaranteed being singled out for criticism!!

Life is just so unfair!

Aug 6 - 10:43 AM

Bloody Mathias

Mathias N/A

Finally, it's good to see a deserving film tower over all others. Here's hoping it beat MI:2's $215 mill gross and becomes the best and highest grossing spy flick in a generation. Let's see Bond top that.

I'm hoping Ultimatum holds well with a 50% drop off from next weekend and holds its own against Rush Hour 3 which is guranteed AT Least $50 million opening.

Aug 5 - 10:52 PM

misterz007

P Z

Bourne was the first big movie I saw that exceeded my expectations. The fastest 2 hours of my life.

Aug 5 - 11:19 PM

kishor197

Kishore Reddy

I think he meant in terms of box-office performance.

Aug 6 - 04:03 AM

kendrith1975

Ken Tsoi

Bookworm1994, I wish you have something to add to this discussion, because nobody is God when it comes to box office forecasting. Rather, we want more intelligent analysis, and it is just plain stupid for anybody to make a prediction that contradicts his own rationale, and that was what boxofficeguru did when he predict a 55 million opening for ULTIMATUM when everything he mentioned actually point to a much stronger weekend (SUPREMACY opened to 52.5 million in 2004).

These discussion boards is supposedly our comments towards boxofficeguru's predictions and his thoughts. If we do not agree with him, we certainly can post counter arguments.
Perhaps he may even 'copy' some of the opinions here for his future reference. Who knows?!

Boxofficeguru is certainly not god, hence I keep pointing his errors. Rather, he constantly shows us that any of us can be box office analysts, plus need a little bit of luck too when you do not have the time to watch movies.

It's all about consistency of his forecasting!

Aug 6 - 06:43 AM

goldmonkee

Evan Campbell

I'm pessimistic about Rush Hour. I don't think the duo is attractive anymore...40 or less :)

Aug 6 - 09:07 AM

haelohm

Sean Collen

i generally find the weekend warrior at comingsoon.net to be pretty close almost every weekend =D

Aug 6 - 09:11 AM

~*Admiral Snowstorm*~

Dominique Amsterdam

A fantastic summer in terms of money, as Metafact said. Personally, I liked Spider-Man 3, but even if I'm not counting that movie, there were still a bunch of movies that made loads of money despite being awful. However, it seens like we're experiencing a turnaround. With the exception of Harry Potter 5, just about all the big movies starting from Ratatouille and stretching to The Bourne Ultimatum have been quite good and worth the money the audiences spent on them. Rush Hour 3 looks like it will break the chain, but July didn't disappoint as much as May or June, and August is off to a good start.

Aug 6 - 09:58 AM

Unbreakable Samurai

Unbreakable Samurai

Bourne was pretty good, but Live Free or Die Hard was definitely better, and I'll take Bond over him anyday. No Reservations was a charmingly predictible chick flick, so if your into that kind of film you should go check it out, I thought it was pretty good(B).

Aug 6 - 10:25 AM

kendrith1975

Ken Tsoi

In terms of its critical reception, OCEAN'S THIRTEEN is satisfying to an extent, so it is not really forgettable, unless you are not a fan of the franchise to begin with.

I think we do not have any huge misfires so far this summer. Even EVAN ALMIGHTY manage to get close to the 100 million mark, and it is certainly not bombing like AROUND THE WORLD IN 80 DAYS or KINGDOM OF HEAVEN did a few years ago.

However, one can only just tell how poorly the arthouse flicks has been doing all summer to prove that regular moviegoers are indeed very satisfied with mainstream Hollywood this summer! When so many of Hollywood's movies are getting the same high critical approval as some of the best reviewed indie flicks of this summer, what will audiences choose? Of course they will choose to embrace the bigger budgeted pictures!
This is not something that is healthy for the business, but it is reality. The only mildly succesful indie pics so far that I can think of is WAITRESS and SICKO, but the former lost momentum right when everybody were criticizing the May 3quels, while the latter did decent documentary business, it will not top 30 million.

Instead, we got a slew of indie misfires that include SUNSHINE and RESCUE DAWN, movies that receive great reviews but got tepid public reaction even when considering its minimal platform release. RESCUE DAWN's sophomore weekend, which faces the BOURNE ULTIMATUM's debut weekend, crashed by over 60% from its already mediocre start. And TALK TO ME's 3rd weekend average of less than $3500 per screen means the movie will top out at no more than 8 million.

This summer teaches us that when Hollywood is giving the public what it likes, and I also mean 'upscale' audiences here, then even the great indie flicks will suffer!

Aug 6 - 10:30 AM

synergyred

Nancy Elizabeth

Glad to see that The Bourne Ultimatum did so well. It's worth every penny. But why the hell did so many people bother to see Underdog?

Hopefully I'll get to see Stardust soon, and Rescue Dawn, if it ever bothers coming near where I live.

Aug 6 - 10:36 AM

kendrith1975

Ken Tsoi

There is always demand for dumbed down family fare, especially when such project is attached to Disney. Of course, with RATATOUILLE dying down more rapidly than expected plus not really being very kids friendly itself, it just paved the way.

Aug 6 - 10:59 AM

kendrith1975

Ken Tsoi

Just briefly add that TRANSFORMERS has a lot of passionate fans, and obviously many moviegoers including myself enjoyed the movie (but most people who like the movie, including myself, agree that the final act was very unsatisfying and almost tarnish the entire movie, just like SPIDERMAN 3's final act did to that movie). I would not readily call TRANSFORMERS as one of the best movies of this summer when so many other movies got much more raver reviews and support, if not actual ticket sales. And also, it felt strange that the highly criticized SPIDERMAN 3 got overall better reviews and higher grosses than TRANSFORMERS, and almost guaranteed being singled out for criticism!!

Life is just so unfair!

Aug 6 - 10:43 AM

kendrith1975

Ken Tsoi

There is always demand for dumbed down family fare, especially when such project is attached to Disney. Of course, with RATATOUILLE dying down more rapidly than expected plus not really being very kids friendly itself, it just paved the way.

Aug 6 - 10:59 AM

kendrith1975

Ken Tsoi

Latest news: The final estimates show that BOURNE ULTIMATUM made 67.65 million, which makes it barely ahead of RUSH HOUR 2's 67.4 million record opening, and a full 2.5 million less than originally estimated.

Although obviously Universal wanted some media coverage by inflating its initial forecast, it has been doing ok this summer with KNOCKED UP, CHUCK AND LARRY and now BOURNE delivering the goods! If only they did not greenlight EVAN ALMIGHTY.....

Aug 6 - 12:35 PM

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