Oscar Night Approaches; Who Will Win? Our Predictions Inside!
Summary
There's two ways to predict the Oscars: (1) dissect the awards buzz, attempting to get a feel for the fickle machinations of the Academy voter. Or (2) use your powers of geek math to crunch box office numbers and awards statistics for some cold, hard facts. With both methods in full swing, here’s a rundown of the Internet's major Oscar predictions. Back to Article
There's two ways to predict the Oscars: (1) dissect the awards buzz, attempting to get a feel for the fickle machinations of the Academy voter. Or (2) use your powers of geek math to crunch box office numbers and awards statistics for some cold, hard facts. With both methods in full swing, here’s a rundown of the Internet's major Oscar predictions. Back to Article
(1-28 of 28 posts) | Reply
on Feb 22 2007 05:14 PM PANS LABYRINTH deserves the best original screenplay award more than the others ....seriously if it doesn't win i'm gonna be pissed (Reply to this) |
|
on Feb 22 2007 06:26 PM The Oscars is Dead To Me. (Reply to this) |
on Feb 22 2007 06:51 PM Children of Men should win best picture, I know its not nominated, but its better than all five nominees (and I've seen all of 'em). I think the Departed will win, but my choice is Letters from Iwo Jima. (Reply to this) |
|
on Feb 22 2007 07:41 PM I can't understand why dicaprio is nominated fr blood diamond and not the departed, he's very good in blood diamond but a little miscast, but he is on fire on the departed, even better than tony leong on the original (Reply to this) |
|
on Feb 22 2007 07:48 PM I think the departed should win best picture, but my best guess is babel goodfellas didn't win, neither pulp fiction or a clockwork orange despite being nominated, so the history is against the scorsese film, he'll rpobably win best director just to leave everybody happy what should happen: pic: the departed dir: scorsese actor: dicaprio for departed actress: mirren for the quenn adap: departed orig: pan'n labyrinth what's going to happen: pic: babel dir scorsese actor: whitaker actress: mirren adap: departed orig: little miss sunshine (Reply to this) |
on Feb 22 2007 07:57 PM In reply to this comment (#856518) Pan's Labyrinth will probably win best foreign film. The best screenplay awards always seem to be the unofficial "Best picture runner-up" prize, so I wouldn't be surprised if Little Miss Sunshine wins that. (Reply to this) |
|
on Feb 22 2007 08:12 PM In reply to this comment (#856523) >:[ ugh lol (Reply to this) |
on Feb 22 2007 09:10 PM [b]Oh, no.[/b] Darn! I was sure that Babel was gonna win! Now they're saying the Departed? That's not right! (Reply to this) |
on Feb 22 2007 10:19 PM the departed was OK, very fun and well crafted...but there were much better movie this year and face it, is not Scorsese's best AT ALL. Pan's labyrinth..I hope it wins the foreign language award! It's a wonderful movie! (Reply to this) |
|
on Feb 22 2007 10:59 PM Will Win: Best Picture: The Departed Best Actor: Forest Whitaker Best Actress: Helen Mirren Best Director: Martin Scorsese Best Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson Best Original Screenplay: Little Miss Sunshine Best Adapted Screenplay: The Departed Should Win: Best Picture: The Departed Best Actor: Ryan Gosling Best Actress: Judi Dench Best Director Martin Scorsese Best Supporting Actor: Jackie Earle Haley Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett Best Original Screenplay: Babel Best Adapted Screenplay: The Departed (Reply to this) |
|
on Feb 23 2007 06:17 AM [b]Best Animated[/b] I thought Cars exceeded my expectations when I saw it. Happy Feet was absolutely horrendous! Why do they think little kids give a rats ass about the environment issue? And I hated the butchering of the songs. It better not win best animated. (Reply to this) |
on Feb 23 2007 12:06 PM I hope that The Departed, Little Miss Sunshine, and Pan's Labrynth all win something. (Reply to this) |
on Feb 23 2007 01:14 PM I'd like to see Abigail Breslin win supporting actress for her amazing performance in Little Miss Sunshine. I'm can't stand Jennifer Hudson but I've been a fan of Abigail Breslin since she walked into Mel Gibson’s room in Signs and said; “There's a monster outside my room, can I have a glass of water?” (Reply to this) |
|
on Feb 23 2007 09:03 PM here's my pics for the winners. and i have been 100% on every winner BEST PICTURE- BABEL OR LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE BEST ACTOR- FOREST WHITAKER BEST ACTRESS- HELEN MIRREN BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR- EDDIE MURPHY BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS- JENNIFER HUDSON BEST DIRECTOR- MARTIN SCORSESE (Reply to this) |
|
on Feb 24 2007 04:40 AM In reply to this comment (#856531) Oh give me a break, talk about safe bets. God, even the KFC /Taco Bell rats of New York picked your choices! (Didn’t you see the sign one of the rats held up with their Oscar picks for the camera man yesterday – Or was that Oscar Meyer they were referring too?) As for you being a 100% on every winner, that won't fly here if you have two choices for best picture. Look, if you want to impress anyone with you're picks, predict 5 upsets, not safe bets. (Reply to this) |
|
on Feb 24 2007 08:31 AM In reply to this comment (#856522) i dont know if you intended for it to come across this way....but pulp fiction and clockwork orange are both not scorsese films. it was probably just your wording....but i like to be safe... as for my pick, in a sane world, children of men would be nominated and win for best picture....but as for the nominees actually on the ballot, i hope the departed wins, but im sure it wont. i only hope little miss sunshine gets absolutely nothing. (Reply to this) |
|
on Feb 24 2007 10:28 AM Best Fim: Flags of our Fathers/Letters from Iwo Jima Best Director: Scorcese Best Actor: Peter O'Toole Best Actress: Helen Mirren Best Screenplay: Borat Other than these I don't care or haven't seen enough of the nominee's to make an informed choice. (Reply to this) |
|
on Feb 24 2007 10:51 AM Some of the logic of this article is flawed. For example, it says that since Pan's won't win for screenplay, it will get a consolation prize in the form of best foreign film. What it neglects to say is that members who vote for screenplay do not vote for foreign film. The academy actually works so that members vote for their particular fields and everyone votes for best picture. I mean come on, how much sense would it make for some sound editing guy to be able to vote for acting or art direction. So in other words, unless the screen writers say to the foreign film people, "Hey, vote for Pan's, because we didn't", there will be no consolation prizes. (Reply to this) |
on Feb 24 2007 01:04 PM it means a pity vote. like the scorcese getting a directing oscar for the departed now unlike getting it for goodfellas or taxi driver. (Reply to this) |
|
on Feb 24 2007 01:11 PM it is horrible that children of men did not get nominated. babel got a worse rating than children of men. oh well. the best movies usually don't get oscars. remember crash won last year???? the voters had a stroke or something. (Reply to this) |
|
on Feb 24 2007 01:31 PM In reply to this comment (#856537) Would Children of Men have qualified for this year? I know they have a time limit. It may have been to late to qualify for this years oscars and may just have to wait for next year. (Reply to this) |
on Feb 24 2007 03:14 PM In reply to this comment (#856522) Just so you know Scorsese didn't direct Clockwork Orange or Pulp Fiction... I have no idea where you got that. Also DiCaprio was nominated for his work in Blood Diamond, not The Departed. Pay attention. (Reply to this) |
|
on Feb 24 2007 09:42 PM [b]Scorsese's Night[/b] As a film student, and an avid moviegoer it is my fondest wish that meritocracy is the mindset of the Academy membership. I know that his earlier works (Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, and Goodfellas) were more deserving of being awarded, but it should be his night. He is, in my opinion one of the greatest living American filmmakers, if not the greatest. The Departed should win both Best Picture and Best Director. And, if I may add, for a picture to win for Best Picture and for the Academy to not reward the person whose efforts it took to make it deserving of the distinction with the Best Director award is sheer tragedy. (Reply to this) |
|
on Feb 25 2007 05:13 AM In reply to this comment (#856540) Maybe he was referring to the fact that all the mentioned films were exceptionally violent. I find it hard to believe anyone posting on a movie chat website wouldn't know Kubrick directed A Clockwork Orange or Tarantino directed Pulp Fiction. (Reply to this) |
|
on Feb 25 2007 11:00 AM I wrote this article for my college paper. Might as well cut and paste it if I'm going to share in this forum (I'll spare you all the journalistic intros and conclusions and just post the main content). And, that's right, I did not think Babel or Little Miss Sunshine were very good (hate if you like, but to each his own), but I DO see them as the two front runners, however, i don't think there is a clear-cut picture winner. Best Picture Babel The Departed Letters From Iwo Jima Little Miss Sunshine The Queen Should Win: Letters From Iwo Jima Will Win: It’s Anybody’s Guess The best-picture race is wide open this year as all the nominees have a legitimate shot and there is no clear-cut favorite; which is a good thing in terms of making the race exciting for viewers. But while a competitive batch of nominees may make for a fun final category of the night, there are problems here: First and foremost is the fact that Babel and Little Miss Sunshine aren’t very good movies (in my opinion – and many others’). For every person that loved them, there seems to be several that hated them, yet, if you look at the amount of awards the two films have collected leading up to the Oscars, the race is really between these two. Still, is the Academy really trying to say that these two strained entrees are better films or more deserving of a nomination than United 93, Flags of Our Fathers, or Children of Men? The Departed, while the crowd-pleaser (and highest grosser) of the bunch, is really just a popcorn movie that parlayed glowing reviews and the Academy’s shame of having yet to honor director Martin Scorsese into a ton of nominations. I would say The Departed has a chance at an upset, but whichever film wins will feel like an upset in this category. If you look at the picks from critics in various newspapers and magazines, they all seem to have a different idea about which one of these five nominees will win. Letters from Iwo Jima and The Queen are the only two nominees that really feel like Oscar-type films. Letters has the most over-all positive reviews of the batch, and is the type of dark, emotionally heavy history lesson Oscar likes to award; but it is also the one fewest people have seen. However, Clint Eastwood’s name, and the fact that he is almost sure to lose to Scorsese in the directing category, not to mention that the film is just flat-out excellent, may push Letters to a win. It is far and away the best of the bunch. Best Director Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel Martin Scorsese, The Departed Clint Eastwood, Letters From Iwo Jima Stephen Frears, The Queen Paul Greengrass, United 93 Should Win: Eastwood Will Win: Scorsese If there is such a thing as a ‘sure thing’ this year it seems to be that Martin Scorsese will finally win the prize that has (inexplicably) eluded him his entire career – despite five previous nominations. Here’s the thing: He deserves it, but he doesn’t deserve it for this movie. Scorsese could do a movie like The Departed in his sleep. Many hailed the film as his “return to form” after historical dramas and biopics like Gangs of New York and The Aviator, but he should have won long ago for a better movie. The push to get him this award has led to some serious over-hyping of a fine, but in no-way special film. Eastwood has it all over Scorsese with Letters From Iwo Jima - and, actually, its companion piece, Flags of Our Fathers, as well. He made two great films this year, and just the very notion that he attempted – and accomplished – such a feat of exploring a story from two different perspectives makes him the year’s best director. Letters is a tremendous film on an emotional level, but on a technical level, it is astonishing. And that credit is all Eastwood’s. But he has won twice, and the last time was just two years ago. To tell you the truth, I’d even like to see Paul Greengrass get this award for United 93. If you break down what the term “best director” means – as a craft and skill – 93 might have been the most perfectly made film of the year. It really should be nominated for Best Picture. But Greengrass doesn’t stand a chance (though there is always room for an upset). So I say let Marty finally have it. He should have won it 10, 20 or even 30 years ago, but better late than never. Plus, the backlash of an Eastwood win, or more accurately – a Scorsese loss, would be so strong that a win for Eastwood may end up ultimately feeling like a loss when people start protesting that Scorsese was robbed or the Academy has it in for him. Give this award to Scorsese and best picture to Letters and all will be made right and fair. Best Actor Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson Peter O’Toole, Venus Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland Should Win: Whitaker Will Win: Whitaker Like Scorsese, Peter O’Toole has been nominated several times and never won. He received an honorary, lifetime achievement Oscar a year ago, but he deserves to win the real deal. The problem is, like Scorsese, he deserves it for past efforts. Not to take anything away from his extraordinary performance, but Forest Whitaker, another veteran actor who is finally, nearly 30 years into his career, getting his due, is simply better. If Whitaker weren’t here, O’Toole would have it in the bag. I’d be happy with a win for either of them. Best Supporting Actor Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children Dijmon Hounsou, Blood Diamond Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls Mark Whalberg, The Departed Should Win: Whalberg Will Win: Murphy In a year where Oscar may be trying to make up for past wrongs (Scorsese, O’Toole), Murphy, who has never been nominated, but has long been one of the biggest stars in the world, has collected so many trophies from other award shows that it would be tough for the Academy to justify snubbing him. Plus, he was dynamic as hell in his role, one of the best he has had maybe ever, but surely since his ‘80s heyday. Alan Arkin seems to be the only chance of a Murphy upset, but I say give it to Whalberg. He and Alec Baldwin’s live-wire performances were the most enjoyable thing about The Departed. In fact, Baldwin, who lately seems like he can do no wrong (check out 30 Rock Thursday nights on NBC) deserves a nomination here just as much as Whalberg. But give the Academy credit, they could have ignored them both and just nominated Jack Nicholson for the umpteenth time. Best Actress Penelope Cruz, Volver Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal Helen Mirren, The Queen Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada Kate Winslet, Little Children Should Win: Mirren or Winslet Will Win: Mirren Admittedly, I don’t have much personally invested in this category. Mirren seems to be a shoe-in here. Like Forest Whitaker, she has won nearly every award in her category leading up to the Oscars. And she was terrific. However, so was Winslet, and she has been passed over before. Both are more than deserving. As long as Meryl Streep doesn’t get it, I’m good. (I have nothing against her, she is one of our finest actresses, but to even be nominated for a film and performance as shrill as hers proves that as long the Academy needs a go-to nominee in a weak year for Best Actress competition, and she has made a film that year, Streep will get a perfunctory nod.) Best Supporting Actress Adriana Barraza, Babel Cate Blanchet, Notes on a Scandal Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls Rinko Kikuchi, Babel Should Win: Hudson or Barraza Will Win: Hudson I care about this category even less than Best Actress, but it is the more interesting of the two because a case can be made for all the nominees. However, like the other three acting categories, this one has a clear-cut favorite that has been winning in the category all year: Hudson. So, if anyone has a shot against her, who would it be? Well, one of the few things that rang true about the over-praised Babel was Adriana Barraza’s performance. If the Academy is going to award Little Miss Sunshine (though they shouldn’t) little Abigail Breslin was both the title and the heart and soul of the film. Cate Blanchet just won in this category two years ago for The Aviator and if someone from Babel has a shot here it is Barraza, not Kikuchi. No matter though; a win for Jennifer Hudson is pretty much a forgone conclusion. In the documentary category look for Al Gore’s film to win and Cars will probably take the Best Animated film (though Happy Feat is a contender). Best foreign film will be (and should be) Pan’s Labyrinth, while Pirates of the Caribbean 2 seems like a good bet to hog a majority of the technical awards. Little Miss Sunshine and The Departed will most likely win in their respective screenplay categories (though Borat could upset The Departed). (Reply to this) |
|
on Feb 25 2007 06:26 PM [b]I also found another interesting award going on[/b] POPsnail Presents the POPscars: The New Software Award for Shareware and Freeware Best iPod, PSP, Zune Software in a Leading Role Best Security Software in a Supporting Role Best Software Provider Best DVD Software Best Audio Converters Best Language Software and many more awards which are related to appriated Oscar (Reply to this) |
|
on Feb 26 2007 06:16 PM Eddie Murphy was robbed, he should had won. (Reply to this) |
|
on Feb 28 2007 05:02 PM [b]Try This On For Size[/b] I've developed my own way as to figure out who will win what award. I need to find a better way to present this theory. Pay attention to the presenter for a particular award. If the presenter has starred with any actor from a particular film odds are that film will win. Example: Kate Winslet presented the oscar for best film editing. The winner was The Departed. Leonardo Di Caprio starred in The Departed. Leo and Kate starred in Titanic together. I haven't perfected this yet BUT I would say its been proven to work 70 - 80% of the time. (Reply to this) |
| You must be registered to post comments. Login or Register. |
Related Articles
-
Scorsese Rounds Up Departed Gang for New Mafia Pic
(6)
- Total Recall: The 10 Most Corrupt Cops in Movies (35)
- Rush Hour 3 Takes '07 DVD Rental Crown (25)
- Box Office Guru Preview: Rambo Leads Army of New Films Into Battle (9)
- Box Office Guru Preview: Captain Jack and Captain Morgan Set Sail (12)
- Box Office Guru Preview: Bees and Gangsters Slug It Out For #1 Spot (7)
- Box Office Guru Preview: Saw IV Set to Brutalize All Competitors (19)
- Scorsese, DiCaprio Reuniting for Shutter Island (44)
- Box Office Guru Preview: 30 Days of Night Gets Halloween Started Early (11)
- Box Office Guru Preview: Wide Open Race For #1 Spot This Weekend (10)
Most Discussed
- Total Recall: Keith David's Best Movies (65)
- Five Favorite Films With Avatar's Sam Worthington (51)
- Sundance 2010: RT's 10 Most Anticipated Movies (41)
- Weekly Ketchup: Tron Team to Remake The Black Hole (37)
- The Gimmicks That Changed Cinema: Part 1 (34)
- Box Office Guru Wrapup: The Blind Side Takes the Lead (29)
- Friday Harvest: Iron Man 2, Harry Potter, and more! (24)
- Help Us Choose the Community Golden Tomato Award (22)
- Awards Tour: D.C. Film Critics Name Up in the Air as Year's Best (18)
- Robert Downey Jr. talks Sherlock Holmes & Iron Man 2 - RT Interview (18)
Latest News
- Tomatometer Watch: Will Avatar Live Up To The Hype? (5)
- The Gimmicks That Changed Cinema: Part 2 (1)
- Critics Consensus: Princess, Invictus Are Certified Fresh (9)
- Robert Downey Jr. talks Sherlock Holmes & Iron Man 2 - RT Interview (18)
- The Gimmicks That Changed Cinema: Part 1 (34)
- Total Recall: Keith David's Best Movies (65)
- Awards Tour: D.C. Film Critics Name Up in the Air as Year's Best (18)
- Help Us Choose the Community Golden Tomato Award (22)
- RT's Blu-ray Picks from Sony Pictures (0)
- RT on DVD & Blu-Ray: Harry Potter and Public Enemies (13)
Latest Interviews
- Robert Downey Jr. talks Sherlock Holmes & Iron Man 2 - RT Interview (18)
- Five Favorite Films With Avatar's Sam Worthington (51)
- Director Ruben Fleischer Talks Zombieland (2)
- "I Don't Hate Women": Lars von Trier on Antichrist (17)
- Eric Bana talks Love the Beast - RT Interview (12)
- Fight Club Sound Designer Reflects on Film's 10th Anniversary (23)
- James Schamus talks Taking Woodstock - RT Interview (8)
- John Hurt Talks Harry Potter, Quentin Crisp and Alien - The RT Interview (15)
- Terry Gilliam Talks Doctor Parnassus (23)
- Wes Anderson Talks Fantastic Mr. Fox - RT Interview (9)
Latest Features
- The Gimmicks That Changed Cinema: Part 2 (1)
- The Gimmicks That Changed Cinema: Part 1 (34)
- Five Favorite Films With Avatar's Sam Worthington (51)
- Exclusive: The World of Where the Wild Things Are (9)
- Sundance 2010: RT's 10 Most Anticipated Movies (41)
- 10 Horrifically Profitable Films (46)
- Director Ruben Fleischer Talks Zombieland (2)
- Ban Them All! 10 Infamously Controversial Movies (106)
- 5 Facts About The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (107)
- Five Favorite Films With Zombieland Director Ruben Fleischer (25)
IGN RSS Feeds