Box Office Guru Preview: "Potter" Power Takes Control of Multiplexes
The Hogwarts posse is back with the highly anticipated launch of "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix", the fifth film in the blockbuster wizard series which has already grossed $3.53 billion worldwide.
The PG-13 film reunites the major cast members and features British television director David Yates at the helm this time. Unlike previous installments, this new one began with a record $44.2M Wednesday launch instead of the usual Friday bow. This spreads the opening weekend audience out over five days and reduces the amount of comparisons the industry will make to "Spider-Man 3" which set a new all-time debut record in May with its gargantuan $151.1M three-day launch.
Opening weekend grosses for the most part have gotten bigger through the "Potter" series. "Sorcerer's Stone" bowed to a then-record $90.3M and was followed by "Chamber of Secrets" with $88.4M, "Prisoner of Azkaban" with $93.7M, and "Goblet of Fire" with $102.3M. "Prisoner" was the only summer release (early June when most kids were still in school) and remains the lowest grossing of the franchise with $249.4M. This time, Warner Bros. has positioned "Potter" in the middle of July when all students are out of school and can go to the movies seven days a week. The move was smart since these films usualy don't have good legs and absorb the bulk of their business upfront.
By Friday, "Phoenix" will be playing in an eye-popping 4,285 theaters making it the second widest opening in history after the 4,362 of May's "At World's End" which grossed $139.8M in its first four days. The new "Potter," however, is more likely to play out like "Spider-Man 2" which launched on a Wednesday in late June/early July of 2004. It captured a stunning $152.4M in its Wednesday-to-Sunday frame with the Fourth of July holiday falling on day 5. "Phoenix" does not have a holiday to utilize, but it does stand as a another megahyped sequel from one of the most popular franchises of this decade.
The studio's marketing has been strong as usual for their favorite son. A record 91 Imax locations are playing the soon-to-be-blockbuster which will help add more potency to the numbers. Plus, excitement is extra high this time because of the anticipation surrounding the seventh and final book which by some strange coincidence will be released at the end of next week. Film 5 and book 7 will join forces and help market each other and push the media to do even more stories than usual on the property.
Competition for the long-titled film will come from pics with short names like "Transformers" and "Ratatouille," but that should not be too much of a factor since "Potter" has a clearly-defined audience. Despite some negative reviews from key critics, overall the film has earned good marks. Again this should not matter much since die-hard fans would never miss being part of the opening weekend anyway. What will matter is word-of-mouth. With the Wednesday bow, the studio will need fans to love the picture in order to spread positive buzz to more casual fans and to come back again for repeat viewing. The film's B+ average grade from over 9,000 votes on Yahoo Movies is a decent but not spectacular start in that department.
Warner Bros is not out to break records this weekend. It's all about collecting cash over as many summer nights as possible. "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" might be able to open to about $90M over the Friday-to-Sunday period and around $155M over the five-day debut frame.
The magic trio is back
Elisha Cuthbert enters the horror scene in the new gorefest "Captivity," a new fright flick quietly being tossed into the marketplace. Released by After Dark Films, the R-rated entry chronicles the capture and torture of a successful model and is aimed at genre fans who like the most extreme form of horror. The marketing push has not been very strong and aside from "1408," most fright films in recent months have all flopped. This should be no different. With Optimus Prime, Mr. Potter, and John McClane all offering brand name summer action, "Captivity" should find it difficult to get noticed. Opening in about 1,500 locations on Friday the 13th, a $4M debut seems likely.
No one told her she'd be opening opposite "Harry Potter."
Last weekend, "Transformers" rocked the box office with its extended opening week haul of $155.4M. A severe drop is in store this weekend thanks to the wizard sequel. Had both "Transformers" and "Potter" opened on a Friday, a weekend drop of 60% or more would result. But since frames are diluted down from their full potential, a 50% decline may instead occur. That would give Paramount about $35M for the frame and a cume of $222M after 13.5 days.
Disney's "Ratatouille" is holding up well but will lose some of its kid audience to the Hogwarts flick. Since the "Potter" pics are getting darker, parents of younger children will probably avoid it and opt for the G-rated rodent cartoon instead. A 35% drop to around $19M would give the toon a plump $143M after 17 days.
LAST YEAR: Despite dropping 54%, "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" topped the box office with a colossal $62.3M in its second weekend. In a close race for the silver medal, Sony's comedy "Little Man" edged out a second place debut with $21.6M followed closely by Universal's rival comedy "You, Me and Dupree" which bowed to $21.5M. The Wayans brothers found their way to $58.3M while the Owen Wilson pic enjoyed better legs with a $75.6M final. Rounding out the top five were "Superman Returns" with $12.3M and "The Devil Wears Prada" with $10.4M.
Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com
The PG-13 film reunites the major cast members and features British television director David Yates at the helm this time. Unlike previous installments, this new one began with a record $44.2M Wednesday launch instead of the usual Friday bow. This spreads the opening weekend audience out over five days and reduces the amount of comparisons the industry will make to "Spider-Man 3" which set a new all-time debut record in May with its gargantuan $151.1M three-day launch.
Opening weekend grosses for the most part have gotten bigger through the "Potter" series. "Sorcerer's Stone" bowed to a then-record $90.3M and was followed by "Chamber of Secrets" with $88.4M, "Prisoner of Azkaban" with $93.7M, and "Goblet of Fire" with $102.3M. "Prisoner" was the only summer release (early June when most kids were still in school) and remains the lowest grossing of the franchise with $249.4M. This time, Warner Bros. has positioned "Potter" in the middle of July when all students are out of school and can go to the movies seven days a week. The move was smart since these films usualy don't have good legs and absorb the bulk of their business upfront.
By Friday, "Phoenix" will be playing in an eye-popping 4,285 theaters making it the second widest opening in history after the 4,362 of May's "At World's End" which grossed $139.8M in its first four days. The new "Potter," however, is more likely to play out like "Spider-Man 2" which launched on a Wednesday in late June/early July of 2004. It captured a stunning $152.4M in its Wednesday-to-Sunday frame with the Fourth of July holiday falling on day 5. "Phoenix" does not have a holiday to utilize, but it does stand as a another megahyped sequel from one of the most popular franchises of this decade.
The studio's marketing has been strong as usual for their favorite son. A record 91 Imax locations are playing the soon-to-be-blockbuster which will help add more potency to the numbers. Plus, excitement is extra high this time because of the anticipation surrounding the seventh and final book which by some strange coincidence will be released at the end of next week. Film 5 and book 7 will join forces and help market each other and push the media to do even more stories than usual on the property.
Competition for the long-titled film will come from pics with short names like "Transformers" and "Ratatouille," but that should not be too much of a factor since "Potter" has a clearly-defined audience. Despite some negative reviews from key critics, overall the film has earned good marks. Again this should not matter much since die-hard fans would never miss being part of the opening weekend anyway. What will matter is word-of-mouth. With the Wednesday bow, the studio will need fans to love the picture in order to spread positive buzz to more casual fans and to come back again for repeat viewing. The film's B+ average grade from over 9,000 votes on Yahoo Movies is a decent but not spectacular start in that department.
Warner Bros is not out to break records this weekend. It's all about collecting cash over as many summer nights as possible. "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" might be able to open to about $90M over the Friday-to-Sunday period and around $155M over the five-day debut frame.
The magic trio is back
Elisha Cuthbert enters the horror scene in the new gorefest "Captivity," a new fright flick quietly being tossed into the marketplace. Released by After Dark Films, the R-rated entry chronicles the capture and torture of a successful model and is aimed at genre fans who like the most extreme form of horror. The marketing push has not been very strong and aside from "1408," most fright films in recent months have all flopped. This should be no different. With Optimus Prime, Mr. Potter, and John McClane all offering brand name summer action, "Captivity" should find it difficult to get noticed. Opening in about 1,500 locations on Friday the 13th, a $4M debut seems likely.
No one told her she'd be opening opposite "Harry Potter."
Last weekend, "Transformers" rocked the box office with its extended opening week haul of $155.4M. A severe drop is in store this weekend thanks to the wizard sequel. Had both "Transformers" and "Potter" opened on a Friday, a weekend drop of 60% or more would result. But since frames are diluted down from their full potential, a 50% decline may instead occur. That would give Paramount about $35M for the frame and a cume of $222M after 13.5 days.
Disney's "Ratatouille" is holding up well but will lose some of its kid audience to the Hogwarts flick. Since the "Potter" pics are getting darker, parents of younger children will probably avoid it and opt for the G-rated rodent cartoon instead. A 35% drop to around $19M would give the toon a plump $143M after 17 days.
LAST YEAR: Despite dropping 54%, "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" topped the box office with a colossal $62.3M in its second weekend. In a close race for the silver medal, Sony's comedy "Little Man" edged out a second place debut with $21.6M followed closely by Universal's rival comedy "You, Me and Dupree" which bowed to $21.5M. The Wayans brothers found their way to $58.3M while the Owen Wilson pic enjoyed better legs with a $75.6M final. Rounding out the top five were "Superman Returns" with $12.3M and "The Devil Wears Prada" with $10.4M.
Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com
Related Items
(1-17 of 17 posts) | Reply
 on Jul 13 2007 11:54 AM "Harry Potter Film Introduces Children to the Magic of Not Reading" (Reply to this) |
|
on Jul 13 2007 12:09 PM In my opinion, the BEST Potter movie yet, I give it an A+! Sure they left some stuff out, but you have to or you'll be left with a four, five hour movie. Being a nerd for the books, I was content with the portions they edited out, rather than angry. Fantastic motion picture, I haven't said this in a while but a movie just entered my top ten of all time, and it is the Order of the Phoenix. (Reply to this) |
 on Jul 13 2007 02:38 PM Smart move indeed, to release this sucker a week before the final book drops. Popular wisdom dictates the final installment of any immensely popular series is doomed to fall short of everyone's expectations. Not saying that's precisely what will happen with Rowling's 7th book, but it makes for good insurance to bow the fim just before rather than after. That's just what I would do, and I'm an idiot. (Reply to this) |
|
on Jul 13 2007 02:56 PM Good stuff Scarborough Fair! I hope this one is as good as Infernal says. I thought the 2nd one was the best, the others just leave me wanting more at the end. As far as the last one doing the worst, I disagree. Look at Star Wars III, Lord of the Rings III, even XMen 3, which may not have been as good as the first 2, but brought in crazy money. Ok, don't mention the third ones from this summer! (Reply to this) |
 on Jul 14 2007 11:45 AM I disagree with you Selke, on some films. Star Wars III, X-Men 3, Shrek 3, and Spiderman 3, okay, I'll give you that -- they were the worst of their respective series. However, I thought Pirates 3 and LotR3 stood up to their predecessor. Pirates 3 was nowhere near Pirates 1, but it was a significant step above Pirates 2. Return of the King meanwhile was just as good, if not better than Two Towers and Fellowship of the Ring, thought the last 30 minutes wasn't that necessary in RotK ;) (Reply to this) |
|
on Jul 14 2007 01:59 PM In reply to this comment (#925832) ...SW Episode III was worse than Episode I and II?? Since when? (Reply to this) |
|
on Jul 14 2007 04:36 PM the movie is almost perfect considering that it's based on the weakest of the potter novel my only complain is that that shocking event near the end has very little impact, much less than in the book, but other than that is a perfect adaptation it's also very surprising how spot on is the lead performance, in the others he's just along for the ride not being bad but nothing to remark either, here that kid radcliffe nails every scene, specially the ones on the army, where he has to show leadership (Reply to this) |
 on Jul 15 2007 06:59 AM Potter was very good, could have been a bit longer, seemed like it was edited down. The 4th movie is still definitely my favorite. (Reply to this) |
|
on Jul 15 2007 09:54 AM Yes, Potter 5 was very good. Definitely edited down though, since they left several characters behind at the end. Couple of plot holes as well, but overall, up there with number 3 for the best so in the series. And Star Wars Episode III is definitely NOT the worst in the series. To say that is to be smoking the crack. (Reply to this) |
|
on Jul 15 2007 11:53 AM I do not think he was talking about episode 3,but rather Return of the jedi. :P (Reply to this) |
 on Jul 15 2007 01:04 PM Return of the Jedi is not the worst. Are you smoking crack? Oh and i was pissed how they ruined Sirius' death. (Reply to this) |
|
on Jul 15 2007 01:37 PM In reply to this comment (#928271) Of the original 3, I think it's widely acknowledged that Jedi is that series' Temple of Doom. Still very good, but the weakest of the series. (Reply to this) |
|
on Jul 16 2007 02:23 AM In reply to this comment (#928506) Wrong, it is widely acknowledged that it is one of the better, A Last Hope is seen by EVERYONE AS THE WEAKEST. (Reply to this) |
|
on Jul 16 2007 09:44 AM In reply to this comment (#931703) Again your logic is flawed. Everyone would still include me. Anyway not really worth arguing about when you talk about movies of that quality. I just happen to be a sucker for Alec Guinness and he pushed Last Hope above Jedi for me and a lot of people, but I love your manner of speaking in such absolutes so much I'll let it slide this time :) (Reply to this) |
|
on Jul 16 2007 09:46 AM Oh, plus I see the Ewoks as a horrible foreshadowing of the coming of Jar Jar Binks so that's another strike against Jedi in my book, but again still love Jedi. (Reply to this) |
|
on Jul 16 2007 09:48 AM Oh and just for my clarity, we're talking about three films. If Hope is the weakest and Empire is by far the best, wouldn't that make Jedi sort of middle of the road or are you just one of those Glass is half full kinda guys? (Reply to this) |
|
on Jul 16 2007 09:49 AM and I've mentioned I don't love the new RT format, but where the heck did the delete and edit buttons go? (Reply to this) |
Related Links
Related Articles
- Box Office Guru Preview: Indiana Jones Set To Conquer Multiplexes 28
- 2008 MTV Movie Award Nominations Announced 39
- Exclusive: RT Visits the Set of Three and Out 2
- Warners, David Yates Splitting Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows in Two 91
- Rush Hour 3 Takes '07 DVD Rental Crown 25
- David Yates Directing Final Harry Potter Film? 48
- Warners Splitting Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows In Two? 83
- Atonement, Control Lead London Film Critics Noms 8
- RT on DVD: Take Harry Potter, Jason Bourne Home for the Holidays 4
- J.K. Rowling Outs Albus Dumbledore 90
Most Discussed
- Holy Box-Office, Batman! Dark Knight Makes $66M On Record-Breaking Opening Day 145
- Box Office Guru Wrapup: Kapow! The Bat Slams The Box Office 74
- Review Revue: The Dark Knight vs. ABBA, Chimp Flicks 59
- Box Office Guru Preview: Dark Knight Set For Gargantuan Grosses 41
- Critics Consensus: The Dark Knight Is One Of The Year's Best-Reviewed 37
- XXX3 to Revive Vin Diesel 26
- Weekly Ketchup: Wanted, Monster Squad, and the New Watchmen Trailer 21
- Transformers 2 Scribe Sets Record Straight 21
- Clone Wars Series Details Revealed 16
- RT on DVD: Geek Alert! Spaced Exclusive, Robot Chicken Star Wars 14
Latest News
- Party with the Masters of the Web at Comic-Con! 0
- Total Recall: Our Favorite Conspiracies 3
- RT Photo Preview: What To Watch at Comic-Con 1
- Exclusive: Death Race International Poster Revealed 10
- RT on DVD: Geek Alert! Spaced Exclusive, Robot Chicken Star Wars 14
- Transformers 2 Scribe Sets Record Straight 21
- Brush Up On Your Shakespeare With Our List Of The Bard's Best Films 0
- Brendan Fraser Geeks Out Over G.I. Joe Cameo 10
- XXX3 to Revive Vin Diesel 26
- Clone Wars Series Details Revealed 16
Latest Interviews
- RT Interview: Ben Barnes on Taking on the Journey of Prince Caspian 0
- RT Interview: William Moseley on His Last Narnia Adventure in Prince Caspian 2
- RT Interview: Jack Black on Kung Fu Panda 6
- RT Interview: Skandar Keynes on the Action Challenge of Prince Caspian 1
- RT Interview: Anna Popplewell on a Different Side to Narnia in Prince Caspian 10
- RT Interview: Keira Knightley on Welsh Accents and Life After Pirates 15
- RT Interview: Sienna Miller on Dylan Thomas, G.I. Joe and Nottingham 2
- RT Interview: Ben Affleck Goes After the Critics for a Change 34
- Interview: Uwe Boll Talks Postal, Kevin Costner, and Answers Reader Mail 43
- RT Interview: Joan Cusack on War, Inc., the Unofficial Sequel to Grosse Point Blank 6
Latest Features
- Exclusive: Ben Burtt's WALL-E Sound Masterclass 1
- Exclusive: The Storyboards of WALL-E 6
- Exclusive: The World of WALL-E 10
- Exclusive: Inside Pixar - A Photo Tour 14
- Exclusive: Pixar's and Stars' Favourite WALL-E Moments 23
- Guillermo del Toro - RT's Dinner and the Movies Interview 28
- Total Recall: The 25 Best Action Heroines of All Time 125
- Exclusive: Hellboy II Edit Suite Visit and Concept Art 7
- Total Recall: The Best of Stan Winston 14
- Exclusive Interview: Angelina Jolie Talks Wanted 31
IGN RSS Feeds