Box Office Guru Wrapup: Bourne and The Campaign Dethrone the Batman



Universal scored its industry-leading third number one opening of the summer with its franchise spy thriller The Bourne Legacy which knocked The Dark Knight Rises out of the top spot after a three-week reign atop the North American box office. Moviegoers also came out in healthy numbers for two new star-driven comedies as the political comedy The Campaign starring Will Ferrell and Zach Galifianakis and the marital tale Hope Springs with Meryl Streep and Tommy Lee Jones both connected with their target audiences. After back-to-back weekends when the Top 20 was down by more than 25% from last year, the marketplace rebounded back to normal levels for this time of year.

Jeremy Renner anchored a solid, but not spectacular, opening for his latest franchise pic The Bourne Legacy which debuted to an estimated $40.3M from 3,746 theaters for an encouraging $10,749 average. The PG-13 film pulled in action fans despite the fact that star Matt Damon who played the title character of all three previous films, and director Paul Greengrass who helmed the last two installments, were gone this time. Adjusting for ten years of ticket price increases, Legacy sold roughly 400,000 more tickets on opening weekend than the first film in the franchise The Bourne Identity from June 2002.

But given the cast and crew changes, Renner having no track record of anchoring a major film, and being among the last in a long line of summer action offerings, Legacy's performance was reasonably good. The weekend gross was also close to the $40.8M of 2006's Casino Royale which asked James Bond fans to forget Pierce Brosnan and accept newcomer Daniel Craig. Universal's decision to bump its release date back a week from August 3 to August 10 certainly paid dividends as it would have split the action crowd with Total Recall last weekend. Plus the juggernaut The Dark Knight Rises was a week older this frame.

Legacy played well across gender lines with men making up 52% of the crowd, according to studio research. Those 30 and older were a very high 69% as teen appeal was not strong. Produced for $125M, a reasonable cost for today's franchise action films, The Bourne Legacy earned mixed reviews from film critics and audiences alike. The CinemaScore grade was a B which means word-of-mouth going forward will probably be only so-so. And the Friday-to-Saturday bump of 6% was just slightly better than the one posted last week by Recall which fell apart in its second weekend. Also challenging its legs will be the opening of another adult-skewing action sequel this Friday in The Expendables 2.

Opening to good results in the runner-up spot was the Will Ferrell-Zach Galifianakis political comedy The Campaign with an estimated $27.4M from 3,205 theaters for an impressive $8,562 average. It was the third best opening of the year for an R-rated comedy behind only the $54.4M of surprise smash Ted, and the $36.3M of 21 Jump Street. Ferrell, who has not been seen on-screen with a major film in two years, flexed some starpower and fans eager to see him again turned out. The story involving rival bumbling political candidates provided very relevant subject matter which sparked interest in comedy fans. Plus the marketplace had almost nothing else offering laughs for grown-ups and reviews were better than necessary to sell this type of broad comedy.

Produced for $60M, The Campaign will have no problem reaching a domestic gross that beats its production cost. Legs may not be that great as the CinemaScore grade of B- indicates that consumers were not terribly satisfied so word-of-mouth should be mixed. Campaign opened much like Ferrell's last R-rated comedy Step Brothers which opened four years ago in late July with $30.9M when it also faced competition from both a Dark Knight hit and the Summer Olympics. Ferrell does have fans around the world and huge global crowds saw Galifianakis in both Hangover films so international potential is there, although a story about the world of American elections is not an easy sell.

It was two for Batman Begins, four for The Dark Knight, and now The Dark Knight Rises ends its reign at the top of the box office at three weeks. With another franchise action film making a solid debut, the final Batman film from Christopher Nolan dropped 45% to an estimated $19.5M boosting the domestic total to $390.1M after 24 days for Warner Bros. Its 2008 predecessor enjoyed a smaller 39% decline in its fourth frame despite having to compete with the start of the Beijing Olympics. TDKR rose up to number 15 on the list of all-time domestic blockbusters passing the $381M of last summer's final wizard flick Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 which had the benefit of 3D surcharges.

The Bane blockbuster is running 12% behind the pace of the Joker flick and still seems to be on a trajectory to end with roughly $445M from North America. Overseas, Rises made $34.2M, off a troubling 49%, for an international total of $445.3M and global haul of $835.4M. Nolan's Gotham City trilogy has now amassed an incredible $2.2 billion worldwide and counting.

Meryl Streep and Tommy Lee Jones enjoyed a respectable start for their relationship comedy Hope Springs which bowed to an estimated $15.6M from 2,361 playdates for a $6,607 average. The PG-13 film about a middle-aged couple seeking counseling to enliven their marriage grossed $20.1M since its Wednesday release and played, as expected, to the Meryl crowd. Studio research showed that the audience was overwhelmingly adult female - 66% were women and 69% were 40 or over. Reviews were positive but not very enthusiastic and paying audiences were not especially excited as the CinemaScore grade was a B.

Older skewing films tend to have good legs so Sony is hoping to keep Springs in theaters until the fall and make its grosses over the long-term. The studio has utilized the first half of August to target older women before with 2009's Julie & Julia starring Streep which debuted to $20M representing only 21% of its final gross of $94.1M, and 2010's Eat Pray Love with Julia Roberts which opened to $23.1M which was 29% of its $80.6M total. Both were adapted from best-selling books, though, whereas Hope came from an original screenplay. Plus with Sunday's close of the Olympics, the target audience will become more available in the days ahead. Sony and MGM acquired domestic rights for a fee in the mid-teen millions and Sony handled marketing and distribution duties.

A pair of sophomores followed with each dropping on a different trajectory. Fox's kid sequel Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days fell a reasonable 44% to an estimated $8.2M pushing the ten-day total to $30.6M. A final take close to the $52.7M of the last installment of the series should result. Sony's much more expensive sci-fi remake Total Recall was not as lucky and tumbled by a troubling 68% to an estimated $8.1M. By comparison, Arnold Schwarzenegger's 1990 original opened at the same level but dropped only 41% to $15.1M in its second weekend. The Colin Farrell actioner has collected a disappointing $44.2M in ten days and looks headed for a $60-65M finish from North America putting even more pressure on international markets to deliver big crowds. An overseas expansion this weekend into new territories like Russia, Japan, and Mexico resulted in an estimated $18.7M frame from 38 markets raising the offshore cume to just $27.5M.

The top ten's only toon Ice Age: Continental Drift held up well again with an estimated $6.8M, off a slender 22%, lifting the sum for the 3D Fox pic to $144.1M. Universal's hit comedy Ted followed with an estimated $3.3M, down 42%, and a cume to date of $209.9M. 3D dance sequel Step Up Revolution fell 52% to an estimated $2.9M giving Lionsgate $30.2M to date.

Two films tied for the ten spot with estimates of $2.2M each. Fox's alien comedy The Watch crumbled 66% and has banked only $31.4M to date while Sony's 3D super hero reboot The Amazing Spider-Man fell 50% with a domestic total of $255.5M thus far.

The reality stunt pic Nitro Circus the Movie 3D debuted to poor results outside of the top ten with an estimated $1.2M from 800 locations for a dismal $1,460 average. Since debuting on Wednesday, the R-rated Jackass-type flick aimed at young men has grossed $2.2M in five days. Opening to good results in platform release was Spike Lee's Red Hook Summer with an estimated $42,100 from four New York locations for a $10,525 average. The Variance/40 Acres release earned decent reviews and expands to new markets later this month.

The top ten films grossed an estimated $134.2M which was even with last year when Rise of the Planet of the Apes stayed at number one with $27.8M; but up 5% from 2010 when The Expendables debuted on top with $34.8M.

Follow Gitesh on Twitter.

Comments

bigbrother

Bigbrother .

First time in weeks we've had multiple decent movie's the root for. Hopefully Hollywood takes this Summer as a sign. Give us quality and we'll turn out. Give us crap and you can stick it.

Aug 12 - 05:06 PM

Erick Delgado

Erick Delgado

With the ticket prices today, people is being more careful before going to the movies...Finally they┬┤re learning to skip garbage movies =P

Aug 12 - 10:26 PM

MisterVile

Mister Vile

Not true.

Aug 13 - 05:07 AM

Brad H.

Brad Hadfield

Really? Why is that "not true"?

Sure, there's a turd that makes money occasionally. But this summer alone, I'd say the massive failures of That's My Boy, Rock of Ages, Battleship, The Watch, What to Expect When You're Expecting, LOL, Dark Shadows, The Dictator, Chernobyl Diaries, Abe Lincoln: Vampire Hunter, Total Recall and Step Up 4 indicate that people are being more picky.

This summer's biggest hits were, for the most part, critically acclaimed.

Aug 13 - 07:18 AM

MisterVile

Mister Vile

This is true, but i have had my beef with some of the critically acclaimed movies that have made mucho de neiro this year. I'd list them, but it would all just be my opinion. Critics need to step it up on what they deem Fresh these days.

Aug 13 - 10:20 AM

King  S.

King Simba

Brad, I agree, it seems like audiences are being pretty picky this year.

In fact, when you look at this year's highest grossing films it's amazing how much critical reviews are similair to box office performance. The one film that made more than 600 mil (Avengers) is the only blockbuster to have achieved critical acclaim this year (over 90% positive reviews by critics), while the two 400 mil grossers (TDKR and Hunger Games) both have very positive reviews (around 85%) while all of the 200-250 mil (Ted, Brave, Amazing Spiderman, Madagascar 3) grossers have generally postive reviews (70-80%) with the one exception being The Lorax, which so far remains the only rotten film this year to gross more than 200 mil (though of course Breaking Dawn Part 2 will almost certainly be another). Compare that to last year when half of the top 10 highest grossers were rated rotten.

Meanwhile, nearly all of the major bombs this year have been recieved mixed to negative reviews. It'll be interesting to see what Hollywood is going to make of this.

Aug 13 - 03:45 PM

MisterVile

Mister Vile

I doubt much Simba. While it would be all of our wet dreams to see movie studios put the quality of the film first, they will most likely see this year as an anomaly. There is not enough history/evidence to correlate between box office revenue and critical acclaim.

Aug 14 - 08:24 AM

Gordon Franklin Terry Sr

Gordon Terry

Right: HOLLYWOOD CAN STICK IT!//// (and all film-critics need [except Roger Ebert] to be SENT INTO CARTOON-LAND by Naughty Little Anthony in TWILIGHT ZONE-THE MOVIE) . . . in the original episode of "It's A Good Life," naughty little Anthony would send people into the cornfield.

Aug 13 - 01:44 PM

Lowell Renold

Lowell Renold

I really hope The Dark Knight Rises reaches the $1 billion mark. It deserves to. I think it's the best movie of the year. As for the new releases, I would love to see The Campaign and The Bourne Legacy. But Hope Springs? Well, as much as I love Tommy Lee Jones, it doesn't look like my kind of movie. So it might be a rental for me.

Aug 12 - 05:08 PM

Brian B.

Brian Barreto

It'll need to make another $120-140 million overseas. I thought it would break $1 billion worldwide easily, but it's starting to decline steeply overseas. I hope it breaks a billion dollars as well. I don't care if it surpasses The Dark Knight, but TDKR deserves to be on the billion-dollar club.

Aug 12 - 06:06 PM

Facebook User

Facebook User

It hasn't opened yet in China which will add some hefty dollar signs to it's worldwide total; hnece the reason I have not seen it yet. Although strangely, it's opening at the same time as The Amazing Spiderman.

Aug 13 - 05:47 AM

Todd G.

Todd Gemskie

Avengers was an all around better movie than TDKR and total gross will reflect that. Both are very good movies, but Avengers rule.

Aug 13 - 07:20 AM

Ferzan Uddin

Ferzan Uddin

@Todd

TDKR beats Avengers in everything but action and comedy, and action I personally think it ties with.

Aug 13 - 08:04 PM

Sean James

Sean James

I knew Bourne: Legacy would crumple Tdkr. Not to say batman is not a bad movie but it just did not have the excitement of the dark knight. Plus the third films usually dont perform as well as the first or second films.

Aug 12 - 05:11 PM

This comment has been removed.

Brian B.

Brian Barreto

TDKR is definitely the most anticipated film of the year, but it had LOTS of obstacles (the Aurora massacre, the Olympics, the near 3-hour runtime, the polarizing word-of-mouth with people's reactions ranging from "it's the best movie ever" to "it's good, but not great like TDK" and even "meh" to "it sucked", no "Heath Ledger" factor, the overly dark tone that certainly kept away some kids and their families, casual audiences unfamiliar with the trilogy have no desire to see the film, etc.) holding it back from being as big as it could be. Would've it been as big as The Avengers? It's debatable, but I highly doubt it, especially since TDKR had more competition to deal with as well not having the benefit of 3-D (and I-MAX 3-D) ticket subcharges. As for The Hobbit, I can't wait to see it. I wonder how Jackson will divide one book into three seperate, full-length films. No matter what, I'm watching it at least twice (once in 24 fps and once in 48 fps).

Aug 12 - 06:19 PM

filmmaniac123

Aakash Kumar

the word of mouth is very good. The cinemascore for this is an A. o.o Facts my friend

Aug 14 - 04:30 PM

bigbrother

Bigbrother .

When movie's in their first week beat movie's in their fourth it's not really crumpling per say. It's more like eventually movie's run out of steam and get overtaken. It's happened to every movie ever made. Also, Bourne will make about a 6th of what TDKR's does in it's entire run if it's lucky, so who really "crumpled" who?

Aug 12 - 06:59 PM

Janson Jinnistan

Janson Jinnistan

10K average is hardly crumpling anything, and Gitesh is being nice calling it "encouraging". Compare Ted - 16K, Amazing Spiderman - 15K, Prometheus - 14K, all in wide release. Although RT didn't put up numbers for DKR, it most certainly was higher.

Aug 12 - 07:57 PM

Gordon Franklin Terry Sr

Gordon Terry

exactly, Big Brother . . . in its FOURTH week, any movie will crumble (except STAR WARS at 20-WEEKS AT NUMBER ONE; ET-The Extra Terrestrial at 16-WEEKS AT #1; TITANIC, 15-Weeks at #1; BEVERLY HILLS COP at 14-WEEKS (tied-with TOOTSIE) at Number 1 at the Box Office//// . . . too bad with PIRACY and a HORRIBLE ECONOMY, I doubt that a film can break 8 Weeks at Number One.///Star Wars actually opened in only 43 theaters nationwide and ranked number two during its first 2-weeks of release.

Aug 13 - 01:36 PM

Zach Miller

Zach Miller

Um...Toy Story 3. Lord of the Rings 3. Bourne Ultimatum...that's about it.

Aug 12 - 08:06 PM

Bow Ties are Cool

The Holy Rainbow of Awesomness

How did it "crumple" it? It's in it's 4th weekend. Bourne isn't going to make anywhere near the amount of money TDKR is (domestic or international). Not to mention TDKR had the shootings.

Aug 13 - 05:33 AM

Sean James

Sean James

what i meant was bourne legacy made 40 million while tdkr made half of that. Its like how michael phelps wins by a 2 body race. I think that it is crumpling. Dont get me wrong though, tdkr is undeniably one of the biggest blockbusters of the year

Aug 13 - 12:15 PM

Samson Lee

Samson Lee

I hate to do this but your logic is still off. If you want to use a swimming analogy, it's like a swimmer from a decent swimming country beating Michael Phelps by 2 body lengths in a 400m race after Michael Phelps has already swam 1200m first while the other guy started fresh. That's not "crumpling", that's called one guy being tired already so the other guy had a huge advantage. If they both opened on the same weekend you all know who would have done the "crumpling".

Aug 13 - 10:02 PM

Brad H.

Brad Hadfield

3rd films often outgross first or second films. Bourne 3, LOTR 3, Spiderman 3, Toy Story 3, Trannys 3, Return of the Jedi, etc.

Aug 13 - 07:25 AM

Gordon Franklin Terry Sr

Gordon Terry

Trannys 3 ha ha ha ha ha (good one). . . type THAT into Google! (ooohh you mean Transformers 3 -- )

Aug 13 - 11:28 AM

This comment has been removed.

Brian B.

Brian Barreto

TDKR is definitely the most anticipated film of the year, but it had LOTS of obstacles (the Aurora massacre, the Olympics, the near 3-hour runtime, the polarizing word-of-mouth with people's reactions ranging from "it's the best movie ever" to "it's good, but not great like TDK" and even "meh" to "it sucked", no "Heath Ledger" factor, the overly dark tone that certainly kept away some kids and their families, casual audiences unfamiliar with the trilogy have no desire to see the film, etc.) holding it back from being as big as it could be. Would've it been as big as The Avengers? It's debatable, but I highly doubt it, especially since TDKR had more competition to deal with as well not having the benefit of 3-D (and I-MAX 3-D) ticket subcharges. As for The Hobbit, I can't wait to see it. I wonder how Jackson will divide one book into three seperate, full-length films. No matter what, I'm watching it at least twice (once in 24 fps and once in 48 fps).

Aug 12 - 06:19 PM

filmmaniac123

Aakash Kumar

the word of mouth is very good. The cinemascore for this is an A. o.o Facts my friend

Aug 14 - 04:30 PM

Brian B.

Brian Barreto

It'll need to make another $120-140 million overseas. I thought it would break $1 billion worldwide easily, but it's starting to decline steeply overseas. I hope it breaks a billion dollars as well. I don't care if it surpasses The Dark Knight, but TDKR deserves to be on the billion-dollar club.

Aug 12 - 06:06 PM

Facebook User

Facebook User

It hasn't opened yet in China which will add some hefty dollar signs to it's worldwide total; hnece the reason I have not seen it yet. Although strangely, it's opening at the same time as The Amazing Spiderman.

Aug 13 - 05:47 AM

Todd G.

Todd Gemskie

Avengers was an all around better movie than TDKR and total gross will reflect that. Both are very good movies, but Avengers rule.

Aug 13 - 07:20 AM

Ferzan Uddin

Ferzan Uddin

@Todd

TDKR beats Avengers in everything but action and comedy, and action I personally think it ties with.

Aug 13 - 08:04 PM

Brian B.

Brian Barreto

TDKR is definitely the most anticipated film of the year, but it had LOTS of obstacles (the Aurora massacre, the Olympics, the near 3-hour runtime, the polarizing word-of-mouth with people's reactions ranging from "it's the best movie ever" to "it's good, but not great like TDK" and even "meh" to "it sucked", no "Heath Ledger" factor, the overly dark tone that certainly kept away some kids and their families, casual audiences unfamiliar with the trilogy have no desire to see the film, etc.) holding it back from being as big as it could be. Would've it been as big as The Avengers? It's debatable, but I highly doubt it, especially since TDKR had more competition to deal with as well not having the benefit of 3-D (and I-MAX 3-D) ticket subcharges. As for The Hobbit, I can't wait to see it. I wonder how Jackson will divide one book into three seperate, full-length films. No matter what, I'm watching it at least twice (once in 24 fps and once in 48 fps).

Aug 12 - 06:19 PM

filmmaniac123

Aakash Kumar

the word of mouth is very good. The cinemascore for this is an A. o.o Facts my friend

Aug 14 - 04:30 PM

Michael Milton

Michael Milton

I can't believe that people would flock to the borne legacy when it doesn't even seem to pack the punch of the originals. jeremy renner wasn't entertaining in Mission impossible and he was so so in Avengers. It also surprises me because most of the people i have talked to online who have seen the new bornemovie were not impressed. some even told me they wished that they had waited for it to go to the dollar movie. Will Ferell hasnt made a great movie in a while, but shockingly just the mention of his name in a film draws numbers. The Borne Legacy wont be number 1 for long. I feel one of the main reasons The Dark knight Rises didn't make as much as it could is that Nolan should have broken his no real 3d policy for this one. when you are going to end a series like he just did pull out all the stops. The other reason which was very evident in the town I live in is that people who actually run comic book stores and had seen the movie already were denoucing the movie and telling others about the movie. I actually got an employee at a comic book scifi store that I frequent in trouble because of his blatant criticism of the movie and his shop was one of the main ones that initiallly was involved in promoting the movie and also set up a booth at movie theatres playing games and giving away prizes and specials to promote The Dark Knight Rises. Out of respect for the victims of the Colorado shootings i wll refrain from placing any of the blame on that incident. I agree that possibly it being the third movie also had to do with it not making as much. Avengers and Dark Knight Rises are both good quality superhero movies in their own right, they are two different kind of movies in tone though and how much they make shouldn't be the measure of the quality of either. i will own both when they come out on Dvd and i have seen both five times each at the movies. so in my book they are both great.

Aug 12 - 06:36 PM

Gordon Franklin Terry Sr

Gordon Terry

that's YOUR opinion, bro. JERMEY RENNER IS FREAKING AWESOME!!!! I agree with you about Will Ferrall (WILL FERRAL SUCKS!)///THE DARK KNIGHT IS FREAKING AWESOME (even if Heath Ledger wasn't in it, it would still be FREAKING AWESOME because The Dark Knight Rises has a FREAKING AWESOME SCREENPLAY although it sported too many bad guys and no definitive demise for THE JOKER.

Aug 13 - 01:40 PM

Jaxx Raxor

Adam Jones

Home come our real names are being used in the comment sections. I'm worried about being stalked by anyone on this site, but still I don't like this change...


On to the box office weekend, Legacy and Campaign did pretty well, although Legacy will probably experience a significant drop because you have Expendables 2 coming next week which will also appeal to the 30 and over male crowd (I do expect the audience to be slightly older with all the old action stars and much more male skewing as similar to the first film it looks like an overload of testosterone which will turn off almost all women).

I thought Hope Springs would be similar to The Help, but audience is much more limited and has less positive feedback among audiences than that film. It'll probably make a decent chunk of change throughout the rest of August and most of September seeing as how middle aged women don't have the need to see a movie on its' opening weekend as RT has mentioned.

Aug 12 - 06:40 PM

bigbrother

Bigbrother .

When movie's in their first week beat movie's in their fourth it's not really crumpling per say. It's more like eventually movie's run out of steam and get overtaken. It's happened to every movie ever made. Also, Bourne will make about a 6th of what TDKR's does in it's entire run if it's lucky, so who really "crumpled" who?

Aug 12 - 06:59 PM

Janson Jinnistan

Janson Jinnistan

10K average is hardly crumpling anything, and Gitesh is being nice calling it "encouraging". Compare Ted - 16K, Amazing Spiderman - 15K, Prometheus - 14K, all in wide release. Although RT didn't put up numbers for DKR, it most certainly was higher.

Aug 12 - 07:57 PM

Gordon Franklin Terry Sr

Gordon Terry

exactly, Big Brother . . . in its FOURTH week, any movie will crumble (except STAR WARS at 20-WEEKS AT NUMBER ONE; ET-The Extra Terrestrial at 16-WEEKS AT #1; TITANIC, 15-Weeks at #1; BEVERLY HILLS COP at 14-WEEKS (tied-with TOOTSIE) at Number 1 at the Box Office//// . . . too bad with PIRACY and a HORRIBLE ECONOMY, I doubt that a film can break 8 Weeks at Number One.///Star Wars actually opened in only 43 theaters nationwide and ranked number two during its first 2-weeks of release.

Aug 13 - 01:36 PM

manwithoutfear19

Daniel Raimondi

i still havent seen batman but i liked spiderman and madagasgar 3 ice age sucked

Aug 12 - 07:46 PM

Amitkumar Shinde

Amitkumar Shinde

watch the batman - the dark knight rises but keep faith on nolan....end is very nice....

Aug 13 - 02:40 AM

Janson Jinnistan

Janson Jinnistan

10K average is hardly crumpling anything, and Gitesh is being nice calling it "encouraging". Compare Ted - 16K, Amazing Spiderman - 15K, Prometheus - 14K, all in wide release. Although RT didn't put up numbers for DKR, it most certainly was higher.

Aug 12 - 07:57 PM

Zach Miller

Zach Miller

Um...Toy Story 3. Lord of the Rings 3. Bourne Ultimatum...that's about it.

Aug 12 - 08:06 PM

Zach Miller

Zach Miller

The Bourne Legacy may have stolen the box office crown from The Dark Knight Rises, but it certainly wasn't better. In fact, it was probably the worst movie I've seen this year.

Aug 12 - 08:06 PM

Christopher Kulik

Christopher Kulik

Worse than ACT OF VALOR? Pfft, I doubt it.

Aug 13 - 12:16 AM

Vincent Fissore

Vincent Fissore

Act of Valor had the advantage of being a pure experiment at the basis. Bourne Legacy is barely a spinoff, which makes it less exciting or memorable in cinematic history...

Aug 14 - 02:03 PM

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