Box Office Guru Wrapup: Dark Knight Leads Sluggish Frame

The super hero sequel The Dark Knight Rises once again led the North American box office, however moviegoer excitement was sucked out of the marketplace as ticket sales slumped to the second lowest showing of this whole summer season. With many consumers still wary of heading to the local multiplex after last week's shooting tragedy, no compelling new releases hitting the screens, and the start of the London Olympics, momentum slowed down to a crawl with the Top 20 sliding down to only $133M - a low amount for July which is usually one of the busiest months of the year.
Following its massive opening weekend - the best ever for a 2D-only movie - The Dark Knight Rises fell an understandable 60% to an estimated $64.1M. It was larger than the 53% fall that its predecessor suffered four years ago in July 2008 but threequels often fade faster thanks to more upfront business. Warner Bros. did, however, hope that those that skipped seeing the film last weekend because of the Colorado shooting might help solidify the picture over this frame. But the decline was about what would be expected for the third chapter of a mega-franchise. Core comic book and action fans have been coming out, but some of the broader audience not as attached to the franchise are feeling less excitement now and have dropped out.
Still, Rises has amassed a mammoth $289.1M in only ten days making for the third best ten-day start of any film in history after just The Avengers ($373.1M) and The Dark Knight ($313.8M). TDKR has even landed in the list of all-time domestic blockbusters at number 50. TV ratings were huge for Friday night's opening ceremonies of the Olympics and Rises, like all films, took a hit on that day. But sales bounced back well on Saturday for the broader marketplace.
Studios usually see the Summer Games as formidable competition especially if the host city is not halfway around the world allowing for more live coverage. In 1996 when the U.S. hosted the Games in Atlanta, Hollywood took the bold move of starting the summer movie season earlier to get an extra week of playtime. Warner Bros. unleashed the disaster hit Twister on May 10 and went on to collect $241.9M beating out the $181M of what was supposed to be the summer kickoff film Mission: Impossible. At its current trajectory, The Dark Knight Rises could end its domestic run in the $440-450M range which would still be an impressive number seven all-time.
Overseas, TDKR launched in 40 new territories against the Olympics and grossed an estimated $122.1M this weekend from 57 total markets. That brought the international cume to $248.2M and the global tally to a stunning $537.3M after just the second weekend. Like the Joker film before it, the Bane flick should still be able to break the $1 billion mark in global box office thanks to growth from overseas markets.
Following a hard sophomore slide, Ice Age: Continental Drift settled in for a commendable 35% dip in its third weekend and held onto second place with an estimated $13.3M raising the 17-day sum to $114.8M. It was the smallest third-weekend gross for any film in the animated franchise as the others each did $17-20M despite lower ticket prices. The Fox fourquel is on course to reach the neighborhood of $150M from the domestic market - also the lowest in the series. Overseas has been a different story where the franchise continues to grow stronger. Drift pulled in an estimated $49.4M internationally helped by big Asian debuts in China, Korea, and India boosting the offshore tally to a staggering $514.1M and the worldwide haul to $628.9M with a whopping 82% coming from outside of North America. As with the last chapter, the $800M global mark should be broken.
Opening to poor results in third place was the sci-fi buddy comedy The Watch which managed to take in an estimated $13M from 3,168 theaters for a dull $4,104 average. Starring Ben Stiller, Vince Vaughn, and Jonah Hill, the R-rated pic about a group of suburban men who start a neighborhood watch only to discover that aliens have invaded their town came in well below many of the debuts that the individual stars have seen in past projects. Critics panned the Fox release and links in the news media between the film and the neighborhood watch killing of Trayvon Martin earlier this year didn't help.
Stiller is coming off of the so-so debut of the all-star comedy Tower Heist from last November as well as 2010's franchise flick Little Fockers which was the lowest-grossing in that series. Vaughn's The Dilemma from last year also opened poorly following a string of studio hits. Hill is hot this year thanks to his Oscar nod and spring hit 21 Jump Street, but the starpower from the cast failed to drive in business this time. Males made up the primary audience for Watch accounting for 60% of the crowd while 59% were 25 and older. With the final Batman pic also playing to adult men, competition was fierce and the start of the Olympics also provided a distraction for sports fans. Moviegoers were not impressed with what they got as the CinemaScore grade was only a C+ signaling a lousy road ahead.
It's been a tough summer for R-rated comedies with The Watch following the dismal debut of Adam Sandler's That's My Boy and Sacha Baron Cohen's The Dictator not faring too well either. Each carried a high price tag for a comedy and The Watch is estimated to have cost nearly $70M to produce. This has been in stark contrast to last summer when The Hangover 2, Bridesmaids, Horrible Bosses, and Bad Teacher all broke the $100M mark keeping adult audiences laughing all season. Seth MacFarlane's Ted has been the only standout hit this summer and Will Ferrell and Zach Galifianakis hope to score a hit in two weeks with their political comedy The Campaign.
Generating the smallest opening of the four-picture franchise, the 3D dance drama Step Up Revolution debuted in fourth with an estimated $11.8M from 2,567 locations for a mild $4,597 average. The PG-13 pic which moves the dancing-will-save-my-life concept to Miami played young and female like its predecessors with studio research showing that the crowd was 64% female, and 71% under 25. The CinemaScore was a moderate B+. Disney handled the first three Step Up films domestically while Summit released them overseas where substantial growth has been seen with recent installments. Summit, now part of Lionsgate, is handling the new chapter worldwide. Revolution bowed 25% below the $15.8M opening of the last film Step Up 3D from August 2010 and 43% behind the $20.7M of the first chapter which starred Channing Tatum. Reviews were mostly negative.
The hit comedy Ted still ranked in the top five in its fifth weekend with an estimated $7.4M, off just 26%. The year's top-grossing comedy has collected $193.6M for Universal to date. Sony's super hero reboot The Amazing Spider-Man followed with an estimated $6.8M, down 38%, for a $242.1M cume. The worldwide tally now stands at $654.8M.
Brave, 2012's highest-grossing toon domestically, declined by just 30% to an estimated $4.2M boosting the total to $217.3M from North America and $309.3M worldwide for Disney. Channing Tatum's latest hit Magic Mike fell 40% to an estimated $2.6M and has banked $107.6M thus far. Tatum has been on fire this year and has anchored three different $100M+ grossers over a six-month period. None were sequels or animated films and all had reasonable budgets making him a moneymaking machine.
Rounding out the top ten were mature-skewing films from notable filmmakers. Oliver Stone's Savages dropped 47% to an estimated $1.8M while Wes Anderson's Moonrise Kingdom dipped only 24% to an estimated $1.4M. Totals stand at $43.9M for Universal and $38.4M for its subsidiary Focus.
It was an active weekend in the specialty marketplace. The indie comedy Ruby Sparks opened well with an estimated $152,000 from 13 sites for a solid $11,683 average. The latest film from the directors of the Oscar-winning Little Miss Sunshine collected $192,000 since its Wednesday debut and expands Friday into 20 more markets. Reviews were positive.
Proving again that NC-17 films can book theaters, buy ads in mainstream media, and connect with paying audiences, Matthew McConaughey's new hit man drama Killer Joe bowed to an estimated $38,000 from just three locations averaging $12,621 for LD Entertainment. Sony Classics generated a $9,511 average from three playdates for its new rock documentary Searching for Sugar Man which grossed an estimated $29,000 this weekend.
The top ten films grossed an estimated $126.4M which was down 25% from last year when Cowboys & Aliens opened at number one with $36.4M; and down 2% from 2010 when Inception debuted on top with $27.5M.
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Isaac H
I really do wonder how much the Aurora shooting impacted TDKR's overall box-office performance. I never expected it to reach the heights of The Avengers, but I'm still curious if it took a big hit thanks to that tragic incident. The sad part is, we'll never know.
Jul 29 - 04:46 PM
The Watcher
I don't think there's any chance DKR could have ever matched DK. It doesn't have the insane energy of Heath's Joker, it's more somber, muted and methodical. It's still a good movie, but it definitely doesn't leave the same impression as its predecessors
Jul 29 - 05:16 PM
Isaac H
I agree; like it or not, the reason TDK did such huge numbers at the box office compared to Batman Begins was largely the hype surrounding Heath Ledger's Joker performance, as well as his death. Of course the rave reviews helped, but there's no getting around the facts. It's for this reason that I never expected TDKR to match TDK commercially, despite it being a fantastic film in its own right.
Jul 29 - 05:42 PM
Ryan Nolan
It sounds as if it will match TDK commercially world wide, just not domestically. I don't think TDKR is quite as good as TDK so the threequel making slightly less in North America is only fair.
Jul 30 - 10:22 AM
Saim Cheeda
Thank you! I loved Batman Begins but i have maintained for the past 4 years that it was heath ledgers performance which has made the Batman series famous. Considering BB made 372M worldwide and TDK passing the 1B mark. TDKR has picked up the momentum from its predecessor but without ledger it was expected to gross lower than DK although it is a very good film!
Jul 30 - 01:38 PM
Vincent Fissore
It may have altered some movie plans for some people (the more security-crazed people, for sure, and surely some sensible ones). However, the Olympics opening has possibly played a part in the drop (although DK did have the same challenge back in '08, and did not suffer as much from it). In the end, you may be right: we will never know.
Jul 29 - 05:25 PM
Stanley Beans
That's true although the Summer Olympics in 2008 didn't start until August 8th. The Dark Knight's fourth consecutive week it was number 1. So that movie had more time unlike TDKR in which the Olympics started in it's second week. I really don't think TDKR will be number 1 for four weeks though. Especially when the Olympics is playing for like 2 weeks.
Jul 29 - 05:57 PM
Vincent Fissore
Ah! I completely forgot the fact that the Beijing Olympics started much later than those in London... Thanks for the reminder.
Jul 29 - 06:50 PM
Isaac H
Sad, but probably true, especially with Total Recall opening next weekend and The Bourne Legacy opening August 10.
Jul 29 - 07:11 PM
Onion Rovirosa
At least 50 millions from the opening weekend due to the tragedy and another 10 millions lost this weekend due to the Olympics.
Stil, i believe it will have not problem reaching 500 millions again. There is 0 competition and the movie was amazing.
Jul 29 - 06:06 PM
Isaac H
I have a hard time believing those numbers. I doubt TDKR could have beaten The Avengers' $207M opening weekend, even with the ideal conditions. I would think it lost $10-15M tops from both events combined.
Jul 29 - 07:10 PM
Nick Peters
I dont completely agree as I was going to see it the opening weekend and waited until this weekend to go see it because of the events that unfolded.
Jul 29 - 08:17 PM
Isaac H
I recognize your decision, but I think you're in the vast minority. While it's undoubtable that the shooting affected TDKR's gross, I can't imagine it deterred much of its (almost entirely) hardcore audience from seeing it opening weekend. Still, as I stated above, you may be right. We'll never know for sure.
Jul 29 - 08:32 PM
Val Mordas
Avengers made more because:
A) The shootings affected its gross (to what extend, no way to tell.
B) Avengers had 3D showings (Here, that means 12.50 a ticket vs 7.50 a ticket. Other places are much more expensive, I'm sure).
C) Avengers is light and airy, and very much like a comic book whilst Batman is bleak and gritty ala a graphic novel. I'm sure there were many more young kids being brought to Avengers, and you know they wanted to see it in 3D. Avengers also may have had a broader appeal to female audience members.
Bottom line is, thus far the two best movies this year were both Superhero films. Until the Hobbit, that is.
Jul 29 - 09:10 PM
Isaac H
@Val You nailed it there. It was a combination of all those elements, but it's simply shortsighted to say that the shooting stopped TDKR from dethroning The Avengers. It's a shame its gross was affected by the tragedy, but that doesn't mean we need to discredit The Avengers. They're both spectacular films in their own unique ways.
Jul 29 - 09:35 PM
Onion Rovirosa
â?¢ From the experts: http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3491&p=.htm
â?¢ Plus remember the movie had a much higher midnight grosses than avengers, in fact it was tracking much higher than what originally was anticipated. The Colorado Shooting had a huge impact.
â?¢ I will admit it, if i was a parent, even i know is unrational i would have ask my kids to wait at least one week to see the movie. People were scared and with a perfect good reason....copycats were a high possibility and no manny adults were willing to take the risk for a "movie".
Jul 29 - 11:36 PM
Isaac H
The reason its midnight gross was so high was, in my mind, mostly thanks to the fact that it was the final installment in a trilogy, and therefore had a much more upfront audience. To put it in perspective, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 currently holds the record for largest midnight showing ever at $42M, but its overall domestic gross, totaling at about $370M, is dwarfed by The Avengers total domestic tally of $610M, even though The Avengers only did $19M or so at midnight showings. In other words, a larger midnight showing means absolutely nothing in the scheme of things. In fact, often films with larger midnight showings have almost no staying power, and therefore do NOT go on to rank amongst the highest grossing films ever.
Jul 30 - 09:56 AM
Fred Brooks
You forget two very important factors my friend, one TDKR numbers we're much more front loaded than "The Avengers" was. Another important factor that you fail to reckonize and simply ignore is the dates both films opened, TDKR opened in July when kids are out of school while "The Avengers" opened in May where kids are still in school. So those Midnight numbers that you talk about are a little misleading.
Aug 2 - 09:42 PM
Fred Brooks
50 million lost in one weekend, man you're nuts, 10 million at the most maybe 15 million and that's a stretch. Stop fantasizing man.
Aug 2 - 09:36 PM
King Simba
They did a polling recently and 20% of the people polled were hesitant to go to the movies due to Aurora shooting, so yeah the shooting did have an impact. Not as much as some would like to believe (even if it hadn't been for the shooting I dobut it would have made more than 175 mil OW), but still an impact nonetheless.
Jul 30 - 01:11 AM
Isaac H
I think you're spot on with that $175M number. The shooting may have impacted the gross, but there's no way TDKR would have surpassed Avenger's opening weekend, even without the shooting and the Olympics. It's just not in the books.
Jul 30 - 04:36 PM
Onion Rovirosa
20% of 160 = 32
160+32=192
-
192 MILLIONS OPENING WEEKEND
Jul 30 - 05:58 PM
King Simba
Onion - you have to consider though, how many of those people who were hesitant about going to movies in general were planning on seeing TDKR? I mean I could see the shooting being yet one more reason for someone not to go see something like The Watch or Step Up 4, but not so much one of the most hyped films in history.
Jul 31 - 01:30 AM
Fred Brooks
I think any sane reasonable mind realizes that. Obviously the shootings were tragic and had some effect, but not to nearly the degree some are saying and i think deep down they even know that, they just don't want to admit it. Hell me and some buddies went to see TDKR the following night, and none of us even blinked without hesitation about going to see it. This film was wayyy.... too anticipated(The most anticipated film of the year)for people not to see, tragedy or not, no way i'm buying that. If the tragedy truly had a significant impact, TDKR would have taken in 80-85 million it's second weekend most likely. People are not going to stay away from a film they want to see badly, they just are'nt, sorry i give people much more credit than that.
Aug 2 - 09:56 PM
Iggi Ignoramus
TDKR would have earned more if there was no Aurora shooting, the shooting led to a bad impact on the movie and the collection fell aftermath.
Jul 30 - 02:05 AM