Box Office Guru Preview: Mmmmmmmmmmm Box Office Feast!
Simpsons Movie takes on three others for weekend box office
Bart, Lisa, and the whole gang from Springfield will charge into multiplexes across North America and much of the world this weekend in the highly anticipated animated comedy The Simpsons Movie which looks to easily conquer the box office. But competing studios do have other menu items in store for moviegoers. Catherine Zeta-Jones stars in the romantic comedy No Reservations, Lindsay Lohan headlines the grisly thriller I Know Who Killed Me, and hip hop star Big Boi tries out the world of golf comedy in Who's Your Caddy?
Fox is aiming for hardcore followers and casual fans alike with its long-in-the-works comedy The Simpsons Movie which hits screens at midnight on Thursday night. The PG-13 film has a substantial built-in audience and should play out like a semi-sequel. To some extent it will be one of the more unpredictable openings of the summer since there is no track record of Simpsons fans leaving their TVs and paying money at the box office, however the fan base is sizable and will definitely come out upfront. Reviews have been good too so those who tuned out a decade ago and miss the Bobo years should return to try out what the feature-length entree is like.
The studio gets major points for executing what is certainly one of the best marketing campaigns of the year. From turning a dozen 7-11s into Kwik-E-Marts to the SimpsonizeMe web promotion, The Simpsons Movie has been generating substantial interest and has jumped from the entertainment pages to the front pages becoming a major pop culture event. That should lead to a powerful opening weekend, even if large drops follow. The marketplace will get crowded this weekend, however Simpsons will tower over its foes with ease. In fact its nearest competitors should only be in the teen millions so Krusty and company will get the attention of most folks. Busting into 3,922 theaters, The Simpsons Movie could open in the neighborhood of $54M.
The Simpsons Movie
The German film Mostly Martha gets transformed into a star-driven Hollywood vehicle in the comedy No Reservations featuring Catherine Zeta-Jones, Aaron Eckhart, and Abigail Breslin. The PG-rated film features the T-Mobile lady playing a control freak chef who must care for her niece when her sister is killed. Warner Bros. offered sneak previews last weekend to help get some buzz going since the marketplace is getting so crowded now. No Reservations should skew more female making the hotter-than-expected Hairspray a formidable competitor. Starpower is not too high here which will make for another challenge at the box office. Serving up love and laughs in 2,425 locations, No Reservations could gross roughly $9M over the weekend.
No Reservations
What seemed like a good idea a year ago - Lindsay Lohan headlining a thriller - now looks to become an unfortunate casualty of the summer box office race. I Know Who Killed Me, an R-rated scarefest from Sony, hits theaters on Friday riding a wave of bad publicity surrounding its star. Is all publicity, good publicity? Will Lohan's arrests and substance abuse problems help sell more tickets? Moviegoers will decide that, but Killed enters the marketplace without a lot of fanfare. Hollywood has run the horror genre into the ground this year with an overabundance of product and this one's harsh rating will make it much tougher to get Lohan's fan base in. The film looked promising a month ago when scenes of the mean girl doing a stripper routine were released online. But most of the intrigue has evaporated and the pic now stands as yet another scary movie that ticket buyers don't need. Debuting in about 1,200 locations, I Know Who Killed Me may collect around $4M.
I Know Who Killed Me
MGM releases the golf comedy Who's Your Caddy? which stars hip hop players Big Boi and Lil Wayne. The PG-13 pic tells of a rap mogul who invades and turns upside-down an elite country club. Opening in only 1,019 theaters with a low-volume marketing push, Caddy is not looking to lead the pack at all but comes as a small offering for teens on summer vacation too bored to see anything else. Given the high amount of competition and the low amount of starpower, the grosses should be small. Who's Your Caddy? might take in about $2M this weekend.
Who's Your Caddy?
As if the weekend wasn't crowded enough, a handful of films that have posted impressive results in limited release test the waters in many more theaters. MGM widens the acclaimed military drama Rescue Dawn from 57 to more than 500 runs, Fox Searchlight expands its sci-fi thriller Sunshine from ten to over 400 locations, and Focus jumps from 36 to 115 playdates with its well-reviewed Don Cheadle starrer Talk To Me. All three should find themselves in the Top 20.
Rescue Dawn
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix took a beating last weekend when the final wizard book hit the shelves. The drop could stabilize this weekend despite the arrival of Apu and friends. A 45% decline would give the Hogwarts clan about $18M and a 19-day cume of $242M.
Adam Sandler comedies typically drop by 45-50% on the second weekend depending on how well received they are. I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry is not exactly a fan favorite so sales could get sliced in half and fall to about $17M. That would still give the Universal comedy about $70M after ten days.
New Line enjoyed a better than expected bow for the musical Hairspray which gave the studio its best opening in two years. However its Friday-to-Saturday drop of 15% last weekend indicates that it might be a front-loaded title. Look for a 50% fall to around $14M giving the John Travolta vehicle a ten-day tally of $59M.
LAST YEAR: Universal's summer action entry Miami Vice opened atop the charts with $25.7M on its way to $63.5M domestically and $164M worldwide. After three weeks at number one, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest slipped to second with $20.6M. Fox's teen comedy John Tucker Must Die enjoyed a solid opening in third with $14.3M leading to a $41M final. The animated film Monster House followed with $11.7M in its sophomore frame. Rounding out the top five was rival toon The Ant Bully with a $8.4M opening on its way to a disappointing $28.1M for Warner Bros. Introducing herself to the world in limited release was Abigail Breslin in Little Miss Sunshine which went on to become a critical and commercial hit grabbing $59.9M at the box office plus four Oscar nominations.
Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com
Fox is aiming for hardcore followers and casual fans alike with its long-in-the-works comedy The Simpsons Movie which hits screens at midnight on Thursday night. The PG-13 film has a substantial built-in audience and should play out like a semi-sequel. To some extent it will be one of the more unpredictable openings of the summer since there is no track record of Simpsons fans leaving their TVs and paying money at the box office, however the fan base is sizable and will definitely come out upfront. Reviews have been good too so those who tuned out a decade ago and miss the Bobo years should return to try out what the feature-length entree is like.
The studio gets major points for executing what is certainly one of the best marketing campaigns of the year. From turning a dozen 7-11s into Kwik-E-Marts to the SimpsonizeMe web promotion, The Simpsons Movie has been generating substantial interest and has jumped from the entertainment pages to the front pages becoming a major pop culture event. That should lead to a powerful opening weekend, even if large drops follow. The marketplace will get crowded this weekend, however Simpsons will tower over its foes with ease. In fact its nearest competitors should only be in the teen millions so Krusty and company will get the attention of most folks. Busting into 3,922 theaters, The Simpsons Movie could open in the neighborhood of $54M.
The Simpsons Movie
The German film Mostly Martha gets transformed into a star-driven Hollywood vehicle in the comedy No Reservations featuring Catherine Zeta-Jones, Aaron Eckhart, and Abigail Breslin. The PG-rated film features the T-Mobile lady playing a control freak chef who must care for her niece when her sister is killed. Warner Bros. offered sneak previews last weekend to help get some buzz going since the marketplace is getting so crowded now. No Reservations should skew more female making the hotter-than-expected Hairspray a formidable competitor. Starpower is not too high here which will make for another challenge at the box office. Serving up love and laughs in 2,425 locations, No Reservations could gross roughly $9M over the weekend.
No Reservations
What seemed like a good idea a year ago - Lindsay Lohan headlining a thriller - now looks to become an unfortunate casualty of the summer box office race. I Know Who Killed Me, an R-rated scarefest from Sony, hits theaters on Friday riding a wave of bad publicity surrounding its star. Is all publicity, good publicity? Will Lohan's arrests and substance abuse problems help sell more tickets? Moviegoers will decide that, but Killed enters the marketplace without a lot of fanfare. Hollywood has run the horror genre into the ground this year with an overabundance of product and this one's harsh rating will make it much tougher to get Lohan's fan base in. The film looked promising a month ago when scenes of the mean girl doing a stripper routine were released online. But most of the intrigue has evaporated and the pic now stands as yet another scary movie that ticket buyers don't need. Debuting in about 1,200 locations, I Know Who Killed Me may collect around $4M.
I Know Who Killed Me
MGM releases the golf comedy Who's Your Caddy? which stars hip hop players Big Boi and Lil Wayne. The PG-13 pic tells of a rap mogul who invades and turns upside-down an elite country club. Opening in only 1,019 theaters with a low-volume marketing push, Caddy is not looking to lead the pack at all but comes as a small offering for teens on summer vacation too bored to see anything else. Given the high amount of competition and the low amount of starpower, the grosses should be small. Who's Your Caddy? might take in about $2M this weekend.
Who's Your Caddy?
As if the weekend wasn't crowded enough, a handful of films that have posted impressive results in limited release test the waters in many more theaters. MGM widens the acclaimed military drama Rescue Dawn from 57 to more than 500 runs, Fox Searchlight expands its sci-fi thriller Sunshine from ten to over 400 locations, and Focus jumps from 36 to 115 playdates with its well-reviewed Don Cheadle starrer Talk To Me. All three should find themselves in the Top 20.
Rescue Dawn
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix took a beating last weekend when the final wizard book hit the shelves. The drop could stabilize this weekend despite the arrival of Apu and friends. A 45% decline would give the Hogwarts clan about $18M and a 19-day cume of $242M.
Adam Sandler comedies typically drop by 45-50% on the second weekend depending on how well received they are. I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry is not exactly a fan favorite so sales could get sliced in half and fall to about $17M. That would still give the Universal comedy about $70M after ten days.
New Line enjoyed a better than expected bow for the musical Hairspray which gave the studio its best opening in two years. However its Friday-to-Saturday drop of 15% last weekend indicates that it might be a front-loaded title. Look for a 50% fall to around $14M giving the John Travolta vehicle a ten-day tally of $59M.
LAST YEAR: Universal's summer action entry Miami Vice opened atop the charts with $25.7M on its way to $63.5M domestically and $164M worldwide. After three weeks at number one, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest slipped to second with $20.6M. Fox's teen comedy John Tucker Must Die enjoyed a solid opening in third with $14.3M leading to a $41M final. The animated film Monster House followed with $11.7M in its sophomore frame. Rounding out the top five was rival toon The Ant Bully with a $8.4M opening on its way to a disappointing $28.1M for Warner Bros. Introducing herself to the world in limited release was Abigail Breslin in Little Miss Sunshine which went on to become a critical and commercial hit grabbing $59.9M at the box office plus four Oscar nominations.
Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com
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(1-11 of 11 posts) | Reply
 on Jul 26 2007 05:29 PM I predict $62 million for the simpsons $5 million for No Reservations $8 million for I Know Who Killed Me (although this one definitely has the potential to go the other way) $1 million(or less) for Who`s Your Caddy? $3 million for Sunshine $5 million for Rescue Dawn $500K for Talk To Me (Reply to this) |
 on Jul 26 2007 06:32 PM In reply to this comment (#977235) What are you basing any of that on? The Simpsons, yes, could do more than the article predicts ($60 something, as you say, as opposed to $50s), but "Who's Your Caddy", which admittedly looks like **** and should make far less than $1 million, will never make only $1 million. I even think the author skewed low with his $2 mil. I'm betting at least $4 mil. Look at grosses for other movies of this type. Urban youths and teens will turn out. As for "No Reservations;" $5 mil?! Again, looks like **** to me, but it has a target audience, mainly adults, and they have nothing geared just toward them in the market place right now. "Hairspray" might be a competition factor, but given the stars and the fact that if you look at similar romantic comedies and how they opened this year, this one seems poised for at least the $9 mil the analyst predicts. I'd buy a few mil higher even. The Lohan movie could do better, but I have seen few ads on TV for it, there are no reviews or buzz (even talk) about it, she isn't promoting it; basically awareness is low - unlike "Who's Your Caddy," which has been pumped down movie-goers' and TV viewers' throats for months now - and Lohan's career is in the ****ter. I thought "... Killed Me" sounded intriguing, but every time I bring it up to someone they have no idea what I am talking about. Never heard of it, have no idea LL even has a new movie out. $8 mil for the Lohan movie and less than a mil for "Caddy"?! What are you on?! I agree the movies may deserve the grosses you predict, but that doesn't mean that's what they will be, because, well, people are stupid and turn crap into hits all the time. Especially in the summer. (Reply to this) |
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on Jul 26 2007 09:05 PM In reply to this comment (#977494) Most people just make random predictions or without much analysis evne when playing box office prediction games on other websites, so there is no need to take the poster's post too seriously. Most of the time the predictions here are very off target, and nobody even cares what they posted. =P (Reply to this) |
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on Jul 26 2007 10:06 PM In reply to this comment (#977235) A 5 million opening weekend for NO RESERVATIONS? Basically, Catherine Zeta Jones has rarely headlined a movie that severely underperformed on its opening weekend. But her output has diminished so much in recent years that either she may manage to attract female moviegoers who did not have enough of her lately, or she would no longer be considered a hot commodity. I believe if LICENSE TO WED can open to 10 million, NO RESERVATIONS should easily achieve that feat as well. (Reply to this) |
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on Jul 27 2007 05:47 AM just wanted to say the Simpsons people didn't propose the marketing, 7-11 did. and as far as i heard from the story...7-11 paid everything out. good marketing but, give the credit to the right people... i think Cokehead's movie, "i know.." might do better than people expect. she just got arrested again and...thats just good marketing. not SMART marketing but...its publicity! everytime i hear that title though i think of a news anchor months from now saying it...and announcing she OD'd on heroine or some drugs. "i know who killed me. well...ME" just being honest... Caddy...uhm, i liked that better when it was called...Caaaaddyshack 2. rich guy buys a country club when people obviously don't want him there?? turns it...upside down? actually, thats COMPLETELY different! off to a bad start guys by rippin' off another movie... (Reply to this) |
 on Jul 27 2007 08:21 AM I honestly have no idea what kind of numbers The Simpson will post but I won't be suprised if it's 45-55 million making it the highest opening weekend for an animated movie ahead of Ratatouille. (Reply to this) |
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on Jul 27 2007 09:01 AM Simpsons will bring it 190million easy (Reply to this) |
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on Jul 27 2007 09:53 AM In reply to this comment (#979300) Do you mean a higher opening than RATATOUILLE? For sure a 45-55 million opening will not be the highest opening for an animated movie. It would be only less than half of what SHREK 2 or SHREK 3's opening weekend record. (Reply to this) |
 on Jul 27 2007 12:31 PM Please don't flame me. Simpsons: $65 million. The power of marketing and good reviews. No Reservations: $13 million. Adult flick has competition from Hairspray. I Know Who Killed Me: $2 million. No ads, Lohan's bad rep should kill this one. Who's Your Caddy: $2.5 million. Hurt by lack of star power, but don't be surprised. Rescue Dawn: $1.3 million. I see this one as more of a critic's movie than an audience crowd pleaser. Sunshine: $1.9 million. This might draw some people who liked The Core and Armageddon. Talk to Me: $0.8 million. (Reply to this) |
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on Jul 27 2007 03:05 PM Everyone loves the Simpsons and remembers its heyday fondly, but how many believe that the movie will be as great as the show used to be, as opposed to as "okay" as the show is now? It's getting pretty great reviews (if you had told me a few days ago that Simpsons would be at 89% fresh with over 100 reviews I wouldn't have believed you!), which should definitely help. I know that I was going to wait for video until the reviews started coming out. I really believe it has a large enough fanbase to support a $60 million opening. Harry Potter and Chuck & Larry will probably lose about half their audiences this weekend, dropping from the mid-$30 millions to about $17 million each. That will allow Hairspray to come in second this weekend with around $19 million, giving it a running total of about $62 million after only two weekends. If it can make that much this weekend, it has a good shot at ending up with as much as $130-140 million total, which would make it the third highest grossing musical ever, behind only Grease and Chicago (according to boxofficemojo.com). Fantastic! Late-summer romcoms usually make low- to mid-teens, and No Reservations should be no different. There are no other wide releases this weekend. No matter what the news might say about some Lindsay Lohan flick or some Caddyshack remake. There are no other movies coming out. Period. 1. Simpsons $60 million 2. Hairspray $19 million 3. Harry Potter $17 million 4. Chuck & Larry $17 million 5. No Reservations $12 million (Reply to this) |
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on Jul 29 2007 11:48 AM Wow, Simpsons snagged $72 mil over the weekend. That's probably $20 mil more than I expected. (Reply to this) |
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