ROTTEN TOMATOES: Box Office Guru Preview: Madea Takes On Dr. Seuss

Box Office Guru Preview: Madea Takes On Dr. Seuss

Drillbit Taylor, Shutter also opening.

by Gitesh Pandya | March 20, 2008

March Madness hits the North American box office as three new releases hit the multiplexes hoping to take down the reigning Dr. Suess toon. Tyler Perry returns with his latest comedic drama Meet the Browns, Owen Wilson makes a return of his own in the comedy Drillbit Taylor, and Joshua Jackson jets off to Japan for his horror flick Shutter. The Good Friday holiday will help boost weekend numbers since the majority of students and many adults have the day off. But the start of the NCAA college basketball tournament will keep many male moviegoers and sports fans glued to their flat-screens watching the endless string of games all day everyday over the weekend. Fox meanwhile will try to repeat at number one with its animated hit Horton Hears A Who which could become the top-grossing film of 2008 after only ten days.

Shooting for his fourth $20M+ opener, filmmaker Tyler Perry goes hunting for elephants at the box office with his latest work Meet the Browns. The PG-13 pic stars Angela Bassett as a Chicago single mother down on her luck who travels down to Georgia after the death of her father to meet the family she never knew. Starpower will come primarily from Bassett and from Perry himself who in addition to writing and directing brings the wildly popular Madea character back to the big screen after a two-year absence. The role is small but the marketing has made it known that the outlandish law-breaking matriarch is back for some laughs. Former basketball star Rick Fox also has a major role and could be useful in drawing hoops fans.

Perry has been a dependable box office sensation for over three years now drawing in sizable African American moviegoers with stories that skew a bit female. There's no reason to believe that Browns will fail to reach the heights of his last film Why Did I Get Married? which opened to $21.4M in October. Good Friday and Easter should help boost the numbers too. Hollywood routinely underestimates Perry's power so expect a sizzling average here. Hitting his top debut, $30M for Madea's Family Reunion, may not be in the works, but a strong second place showing is a virtual guarantee. Lionsgate will open Meet the Browns in 2,006 theaters and may find itself with around $23M this weekend.

Rick Fox and Angela Bassett in Meet the Browns
Owen Wilson takes up the title role of Paramount's new high school comedy Drillbit Taylor playing a homeless soldier of fortune who takes an assignment to protect a trio of teenage nerds. The actor's biggest commercial hits have come from pairings with other big-name actors like Vince Vaughn and Ben Stiller. Here he flies solo as the only star and historically that that has led to small grosses. Younger teens will make up the primary crowd so the PG-13 rating may give pause to parents of kids in the high single digits. A slight male skew is also likely. There's ample competition so a large debut is not likely, plus Wilson's main draw comes with adults not twelve-year-olds. The Friday holiday will get things started well, but word-of-mouth will have to take it the rest of the way. Reviews have not been too bright and March Madness will take many boys out of the picture this weekend. Debuting in about 2,700 theaters, Drillbit Taylor could punch up about $12M this weekend.

Owen Wilson in Drillbit Taylor
Another spooky Asian fright film gets the photocopy treatment by the idea-starved American horror industry in Fox's Shutter. The PG-13 chiller stars Joshua Jackson as a photographer who discovers creepy images of a dead woman in his snapshots. The insatiable horror audience is the target here and the rating will make sure that younger teens up for a scare will be able to buy a ticket. Jackson is far removed from his Dawson's Creek days and lacks the drawing power he once had. Plus the studio's marketing push has not been very forceful so awareness is low. Don't look for this one to open like The Eye or One Missed Call which both bowed in the $12-13M range. The only factors working for it are the 85 minute running time and the fact that there have been no horror films released since the Jessica Alba's thriller from the first weekend of February. Snapping into around 2,700 locations, Shutter could gross about $8M this weekend.

Shutter
Fox has no intentions of giving up its hold on the number one spot. The studio's Seuss hit Horton Hears A Who looks unlikely to be defeated by the newcomers and should take advantage of the Good Friday school holiday to post a better-than-usual sophomore hold. Ice Age dropped by 35% in its second frame in 2002 while its Fox sibling Robots fell by 42% in 2005. Both were March openers but neither had the Easter holiday helping the sophomore session. The well-liked Horton might drop by 30% to about $31M and boost its ten-day total to a robust $91M.

10,000 BC should stabilize after its 53% plunge last weekend. A fall of 45% seems likely giving Warner Bros. $9M for the weekend and $76M after 17 days. A similar decline could await Never Back Down putting it at $4.5M for a ten-day sum of $16M for Summit. Martin Lawrence hasn't exactly been setting the box office on fire with his latest comedy College Road Trip. The Disney title might drop by 30% to roughly $5.5M and lift its cume to $33M.

LAST YEAR: A six-pack of new releases cleaned house in the top ten led by the animated actioner TMNT which still had turtle power with a $24.3M debut. Warner Bros. went on to bank $54.1M with the toon which had weak legs. The studio followed in second with its Spartan blockbuster 300 which collected $19.9M in its third fight. Modern-day action was at the center of Mark Wahlberg's Shooter which opened in third with $14.5M on its way to a solid $47M for Paramount. Disney's Wild Hogs followed with $13.9M. New Line's The Last Mimzy bowed in fifth with $10M while the horror sequel The Hills Have Eyes 2 debuted close behind with $9.7M. Final grosses reached $21.5M and $20.8M, respectively. Adam Sandler's dramatic turn in Reign Over Me led to a $7.5M launch before a $19.7M finish. Lionsgate suffered the worst opening among the new titles with just $3.5M for the swimming drama Pride which ended with a $7.1M take.

Author: Gitesh Pandya, www.BoxOfficeGuru.com

Related Items

Movie:	Never Back Down
	Pride
	The Hills Have Eyes II
	Reign Over Me
	300
	The Last Mimzy
	Shooter
	Wild Hogs
	10,000 B.C.
	Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who!
	Drillbit Taylor
	Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married?
	One Missed Call
	The Eye
	College Road Trip
	Shutter
	TMNT
	Ice Age
	Madea's Family Reunion
	Robots
	Dawson's Creek - First Season
Critic:	Gitesh Pandya
Celeb:	Martin Lawrence
	Ben Stiller
	Angela Bassett
	Adam Sandler
	Joshua Jackson
	Mark Wahlberg
	Owen Wilson
	Vince Vaughn
	Rick Fox
	Dr. Seuss
	Jessica Alba
	Tyler Perry

(1-20 of 21 posts) | Reply

Bloody Mathias writes:
on Mar 20 2008 07:05 PM

Horton - $30 million

Meet the Browns - $20 million

Drillbit Taylor - $14 million

(Reply to this)

curtis writes:
on Mar 20 2008 07:33 PM

meet The Browns - 29 million

Meet the browns is doing a hell of alot of ore selling and it is expected to sell out all weekend. Tyler perry fans will make sure this post big numbers like they do for all of his films

Drillbit Tayler- 10 million

Is anybody going to see this anyway

(Reply to this)

AmericanEagleJRL writes:
on Mar 20 2008 11:26 PM

Tyler Perry is overrated and his Madea character is annoying. Honestly, what does it say about a young man who chooses to dress up as an old woman on a regular basis? Maybe I don't get it because I'm not black. Who knows.

(Reply to this)

donwillymo writes:
on Mar 21 2008 05:48 AM

Yeah drillbit looks like it'll suck elephant nuts! and there's like a gagillion friggin children in the world cause these 15yr olds don't know how to put a condom on so Horton wins again!

(Reply to this)

Bloody Mathias writes:
on Mar 21 2008 07:09 AM

American Eagle, black people don't see Tyler Perry's films because they as a race dispoportionally enjoy seeing cross-dressers. The flock to his films because it has charcaters that look and talk like them and share their same values. It also contains charcaters they all know and can relate to.

Not many hollywood productions can say the same.

(Reply to this)

curtis writes:
on Mar 21 2008 07:23 AM

Bloody i agree with 100%. Tyler Perry make movies for his people. Movies they can relate to. it is no diffrent when White people flock to see crap like Fool's Gold and 27 Dresses.

(Reply to this)

TombstoneLawDog writes:
on Mar 21 2008 08:15 AM

In reply to this comment (#1645135)
"Characters"

..you're welcome.

(Reply to this)

TombstoneLawDog writes:
on Mar 21 2008 08:19 AM

In reply to this comment (#1645159)
curtis:

I don't think any less of Black people for seeing Tyler Perry's movies- I just assume there's a cultural draw there that I don't get (Me: white NY Jew).

I do, however, think REALLY negative things about White people who go see sh#t like "Fool's Gold." ..then again, I think negative things about anyone who would see that. I kind of figured "27 dresses" was a universal woman thing, Black & White. I don't even bother myself to consider whether or not it's a good movie.

(Reply to this)

jmo2ski writes:
on Mar 21 2008 08:34 AM

There are plenty of Whites who go and see Tyler's movies, I've seen them in the theatre myself, so about his movies just being for blacks, they might be, but when its all over with his messages speak to whites, blacks, Chineses, Hispanics and all because he talks about issues that we all have (rebellious children, abused women, and men in some cases, etc.)

(Reply to this)

BallerK3V1N writes:
on Mar 21 2008 10:02 AM

From what I hear around 50% of Tyler Perry`s audience are black women over the age of 40.Seriously I dont like Tyler Perry for the fact that his movies are about the same thing every single time:black man beats wife,wife moves in with family,meets another man,and they fall in love.Its the same cliched crap over again,and Madea gets less funnier every movie.I saw Meet the Browns like 3 or 4 yrs ago when it was called Diary of a Mad Black Woman.

(Reply to this)

AmericanEagleJRL writes:
on Mar 21 2008 11:18 AM

In reply to this comment (#1645135)
Oh, my bad, I guess I wasn't very clear. I wasn't trying to imply the crossdressing thing was something black people easily identify with. I meant the fact that I don't enjoy the movies might be because I'm not black.

(Reply to this)

Bloody Mathias writes:
on Mar 21 2008 02:40 PM

Eagle, i thought as much. Pretty sure nobody thought you were a racist. ;)

Tombstone, no need to be a spelling nazi.
This board doesn't have an "edit" function so try to look past such minute errors and not put down on other because you have a superiority complex.

(Reply to this)

hewpot writes:
on Mar 21 2008 08:54 PM

idiots

(Reply to this)

Matanuki writes:
on Mar 22 2008 07:34 AM

In reply to this comment (#1644780)
I'll submit that not having an interest in Perry's films is not a symptom of whiteness. lol. I'm black and absolutely can't stand his movies. Knew a girl once who, every time I visited her apartment in the wee hours of the night, would try to subject me to that Medea $hit. "Come on, baby. One more try. You'll LOOOOVVVE this one..", she'd say, shuffling through her dvds like a desperate drug fence. Reminded me all too much of a dude I used to hang out with -a short lived friendship- who tried to stuff the bible down my throat every single time I saw him! Heinous, man. heinous.

Needless to say, I stopped calling that chick. Quick! Then, all by coincidence I'm sure, I started getting these threatening text messages, apparently from Jesus, saying that "thou shall not be saved." Well...

I can only imagine how insulted Spike Lee must feel when Perry is compared to him. As if being a filmmaker who happens to be black automatically places him in a category with the greats. Like, some no talent clown from Washington Heights writes a sloppy novel and, like magic, he's suddenly comparable to James Baldwin and Walter Mosley. Feh! That's almost as insulting as the way these book stores are organized. Want a Mosley novel, you find it in the general fiction section. Gotta go three lanes back, to the "African American Interests" isle. The handicapped parking space of books.

And by the way, if another fu cking movie comes out with a generic "Meet the Whatever" title, I'll think I'll probably lay a few golden egg.

(Reply to this)

Blank Frank writes:
on Mar 23 2008 05:54 PM

In reply to this comment (#1647058)
Spike Lee challenges his audience. Tyler Perry gives them exactly what they want.

Spike Lee elevates his material. Tyler Perry brings it down to the ground floor.

Spike Lee makes masterpieces. Tyler Perry makes sitcoms.

(Reply to this)

Matanuki writes:
on Mar 24 2008 04:04 AM

In reply to this comment (#1649637)
Exactly. Spoon-feeding defies art, and insults intelligence. Perry's a spoon-feeder. I'm not gonna praise him just because he happens to be a black spoon-feeder.

(Reply to this)

donwillymo writes:
on Mar 24 2008 05:22 AM

I called it Horton Wins again...underage pregnancy wins again!!! Listen to me next time fanboys!

(Reply to this)

Kimmycat24 writes:
on Mar 24 2008 06:20 AM

In reply to this comment (#1644574)
I am Black and I can't stand Tyler Perry movies. They are too ghetto and stereotypical for my taste. Tyler Perry dressing up in drag is not funny. Eddie Murphy in "Norbit" was such as turn-off that I refuse to go see anymore Black-oriented films. They seem to pander to the lowest common denominator. I am not a big fan of typical Hollywood comidies and I won't go to see "Drillbit Taylor" either. Most of these films seem to go for the adolescent/young male demographic. Mature women like myself are basically ignored as a demographic. I say no thanks to Tyler Perry. I will pay my money to see intelligent and quality movies like "Atonement", "Once", and "Juno".

(Reply to this)

Matanuki writes:
on Mar 24 2008 07:16 PM

In reply to this comment (#1650462)
Two thumbs up, Kimmy. However, don't lump all "black oriented" into one box. You do that, and the proverbial "they" wins. There are still some good black filmmakers out there. You know this, I'm sure. But to see you write "I refuse to go see anymore black-oriented films" strikes as a tad bit extreme and all encompassing.

(Reply to this)

Kimmycat24 writes:
on Mar 25 2008 07:54 AM

Okay, that WAS a litle harsh. Because of "Norbit", I will never watch another Eddie Murphy movie ever again. I did like "Akeela and the Bee" and the "Great Debators". However I still find most Black movies spend way too much time IMO dwelling on past and present racism. The other thing I dislike about most Black films are the lack of Black characters who aren't stereotypes. I am sick of Black characters like Medea. Also Black women are portrayed as loud and brassy or as sexpots in many Black movies. Black men are portrayed as "players" or thugs. What is wrong with a movie about a Black person or family who doesn't live in the ghetto and uses standard American English? For example, I would like to see more Black scientists and engineers portrayed in movies. I like movies and TV shows from the UK because Black British actors and actresses for the most part play non-stereotypical roles. My favorite character ("Martha Jones") from the British TV series "Dr. Who" and "Torchwood" is a Black female Doctor. I wish Black filmmakers and directors would produce quality and uplifting movies and TV shows about Blacks and Black life rather that canned drivel like the Tyler Perry movies or offense stereotypes like "Norbit".

(Reply to this)

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