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Well, it's that time of year again, and I've had plenty of time to think about who will take home the statues on Sunday, March 7th. I've put it off long enough, so here it goes.
Will Win: Avatar
Up in the Air was the front runner before December, and now it seems so far out of the race people forget it's nominated. The Hurt Locker has been sweeping every critic's award, but this one I have to go with my gut. After its win in the Globes, Avatar has secured itself as a serious film in award shows (although it shouldn't be, as it's more of an experience than anything else), and I think it has the best shot at winning the top prize. The Hurt Locker deserves it, and Up in the Air is a personal favorite, but the big winner here will be Avatar.
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Despite the fact that picture and director usually go hand in hand, there is an even bigger statistic regarding Best Director that can't be ignored: The Director's Guild Awards. For the past nine years, the winner at that award show has won Best Director at the Oscars, and with Bigelow's big win there, I have to give her the edge over Cameron. Although I don't think The Hurt Locker has a big enough punch to take down Avatar, Bigelow will take home her own personal directing statue, taking out her ex, and well deserving at that.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Will Win: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
The four acting awards have never been easier to predict. Ever since its release, Crazy Heart could rely on the fact that Bridges will win every acting award. Before, it seemed as though Clooney was in the lead, but Up in the Air's appeal has worn off, and Bridges will win. Jeff deserves it, but if political factors weren't involved (like how he's under appreciated and hasn't won before), I would like to give the award to Colin Firth for A Single Man. Based on performances alone, he was the best in my mind, but I will have no problem watching Jeff Bridges accepting it instead.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Will Win: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
If you've read my review of The Blind Side, you know my opinion on it. And Sandra Bullock definitely does not deserve this, but regardless, she's going to win. Some may think Streep will win again, but it's unlikely. Meryl Streep were to win another Oscar it'd be for a bigger role in a bigger film, because the Academy likes to spread the wealth. Who deserves it? Carey Mulligan for An Education, who seemed to have the edge before Bullock took off. I'm starting to wish that the National Board of Review were the Oscars, as I agree with almost all of those winners.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
This is probably the biggest lock of the night. No need to say much else on the subject.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Mo'Nique, Precious
A close second to biggest lock. Although I think she is very deserving, my personal pick is Anna Kendrick from Up in the Air (again, winner of National Board of Review).
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Yes, screenplay IS important! Although it won't get any of the bigger awards, Up in the Air has the best shot in Adapted Screenplay. It definitely deserves it.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
This is another tight category. It comes down to the two war epics, Basterds and Locker, but since QT won't win anything else, I'm putting my money on him for screenplay.
Best Animated Feature Film
Will Win: Up
Fantastic Mr. Fox is my favorite, and I'm not a fan of Up, but there's no way it's going to lose.
For the rest of the awards, I'll just name the predicted winners.
Art Direction: Avatar
Cinematography: Avatar (Although The Hurt Locker is a close second)
Costume Design: The Young Victoria
Documentary Feature: The Cove
Documentary Short: The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
Film Editing: The Hurt Locker (Avatar close second)
Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon
Makeup: Star Trek
Music (Original Score): Up (although A Single Man was by far the best)
Music (Original Song): "The Weary Kind", Crazy Heart
Short Film (Animated): French Roast (still deciding)
Short Film (Live Action): Kavi
Sound Editing: The Hurt Locker (or Avatar)
Sound Mixing: Avatar (or Hurt Locker)
Visual Effects: Avatar
As you can see, the majority of the categories are a race between Avatar and The Hurt Locker, and they could go either way, but as of right now, these are my predictions (subject to change, as always).