This is a work in progress, so changes will likely be made as time goes based on whether the listed movies are as well received as I believe they will be. Some of these may be based on predictions made by others. Those that I think will win will be in bold.
BEST PICTURE
Argo
Compliance
The Dark Knight Rises
Django Unchained
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom)
Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)
Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
BEST ACTOR
Jake Gyllenhaal (End of Watch)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Daniel Day Lewis (Lincoln)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina)
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Jude Law (Anna Karenina)
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (Lincoln)
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams (The Master)
Olivia Colman (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Amour
Django Unchained
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
To the Wonder
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Argo
Les Miserables
Lincoln
The Sessions
Silver Linings Playbook
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
Rise of the Guardians
Wreck-it-Ralph
Note: This one is hard to say since I haven’t seen ParaNorman and Pirates! Band of Misfits and the other three movies listed I haven’t been released yet. Out of these five, I’ve only seen Brave. Truth be told, I would have put Secret World of Arrietty in my predictions, but since it was listed on a source as ineligible for the Oscars because of it being more than 18 months between its release in Japan and the US (July 2010 to February 2012), it’s not on the list. But unless these future animated films really impress me, I would give the award to Arrietty if it were up to me, eligible or not.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Anna Karenina
Brave
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Lincoln
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Brave
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Hunger Games
Note: Can’t say about this one either since I haven’t really given attention to the songs.
BEST SOUND EDITING
The Amazing Spider-Man
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Prometheus
Others: Cloud Atlas and Django Unchained
BEST SOUND MIXING
The Amazing Spider-Man
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Prometheus
Others: Cloud Atlas and Django Unchained
ART DIRECTION
Cloud Atlas
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Lincoln
Prometheus
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Dark Knight Rises
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
BEST MAKEUP
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Lincoln
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Lincoln
BEST FILM EDITING
The Dark Knight Rises
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
The Master
Zero Dark Thirty
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Amazing Spider-Man
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Prometheus
Other: Cloud Atlas
Gavin the moviejunkie1994 on 9/22/12 at 07:18 PM
Nice list
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Seth S. on 9/22/12 at 07:44 PM
Makeup and Costume design look like nominations for The Hunger Games.
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Eldest2005 on 9/22/12 at 07:47 PM
Both are possibilities, but I'm not sure about Hunger Games being huge with the Oscars.
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scifimark on 9/25/12 at 05:29 PM
I think it would take a second good movie for nominations. It took until the 3rd lord of the rings movie for the committee to really take notice. It is such an uphill battle for non drama movies
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Joshua on 9/25/12 at 12:16 PM
I agree, Hunger Games should totally get nominated.
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Ken H. on 9/22/12 at 08:01 PM
These all sound like possible candidates. I think that Joaquin Phoenix will win though, it just feels like his year.
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Luxo Jr. on 9/22/12 at 09:34 PM
for best actor you're forgetting Bill Murray for Hyde Park on Hudson and Anthony Hopkins for Hitchcock. Hitchcock for best make-up as well.
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Double.Dubs on 9/22/12 at 11:41 PM
Great list. I personally think Anderson's "The Master" will get it for cinematography, though. But, who knows. Lincoln certainly looks like a treat.
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Metal John on 9/23/12 at 05:29 AM
The Oscar is Joaquin's to lose. I also think you forgot Guy Pearce for Lawless. He's going to get a Nom for Support Actor. I'd be willing to bet on that.
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PRYentertainment on 10/04/12 at 02:01 AM
Steak and eggs?
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Will A. on 9/23/12 at 06:50 AM
Great Prediction's Man!
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Jason Lalljee on 9/23/12 at 01:57 PM
Most of these are very good, but I seriously doubt that The Dark Knight Rises (while very, very deserving) will get an Oscar nomination. I see Sally Field getting a nomination, but it's more likely she'll be given credit for a supporting role. Also, if Jennifer Lawrence IS nominated again this year (it;s hard to guess which way her 'Hunger Games' fame has now swayed her) that will also be supporting. Moonrise Kingdom looks like it's the most likely film to receive a 'Midnight in Paris' treatment, being recalled even with its early release, although Wes Anderson isn't much of an Academy favorite. Personally, I feel your list is oddly devoid of a lot of things. Jake Gyllenhaal is a lot less likely to get a nomination than John Hawkes for The Sessions. I'd also show some notice for Cloud Atlas, Zero Dark Thirty, and even The Silver Linings Playbook in major categories. Also, while I don't doubt that Lincoln will be swept along the circuit, I think it'll be much the in the same fashion War Horse was last year, obligatory in major fields because of Spielberg but without any real wins because of its lack of spice. I love Spielberg, but his films have lost the power they would've had if made in the last two decades. Lincoln is a political piece, and it seems more like a puff piece than meaty biopic. Other than those nit-pickings, I'd have to say your analysis of the bigger categories are pretty spot-on.
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Eldest2005 on 9/23/12 at 03:43 PM
Good points, but why do you think that TDKR won't get any nominations? Doing that is likely going to cause a rampage. People were ticked that TDK didn't get nominated for Best Picture, how do you think people will react when TDKR doesn't get a single nomination?
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scifimark on 9/25/12 at 05:32 PM
I think because its good but not great. They will probably look at it like a superhero movie. The dark knight was the best change to get an oscar because it was so character focused
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Jason Lalljee on 9/25/12 at 07:46 PM
Sure, people were ticked because of The Dark Knight. I love TDKR, but it's not The Dark Knight. It's not nearly as good (but that just shows you how great TDK was), and for it to be nominated, unfortunately, it would've had to be better. TDK picked up awards buzz in the first place because of Heath Ledger (even if deserving of its multiple director and writer nods), and without the massive hype TDKR will just fel lackluster. The Academy loves to spread the love, but they probably felt they already paid back Chris Nolan with the 8 Inception nominations (although it is a crime he didn't get a BD nomination). Like scifimark said, The Dark Knight was more like an epic crime drama, while The Dark Knight Rises is an epic comic-book film. The distinction between the two is utterly unfair, but that's the case. If TDKR DOES get a nomination, I will be thrilled. But I'm not getting my hopes up (I can't stand to after my Harry Potter hopes last year).
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Eldest2005 on 9/26/12 at 10:55 AM
You make some good points. I was pretty disappointed that Harry Potter didn't win any Oscars throughout its run. But if TDKR doesn't get nominated for even one award, the Oscars will most likely lose almost all credibility. If they gave the Avengers a nomination, but not TDKR, I will be really ticked off more than HP not winning any Oscars and Tron Legacy not getting nominated for Best Visuals. Even the thought of Prometheus not getting nominated for Visuals is nothing to this.
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Scott W. on 9/23/12 at 05:47 PM
Nice list. I think it's kinda hard to predict the noms before half of these movies are even out, but of the ones that are, I'd say those are pretty solid guesses. I'd give best effects to Prometheus, no question. I'd like to see Nolan at least get nominated for once, this year...
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Eldest2005 on 9/23/12 at 06:04 PM
I would give it to Prometheus, too. But given that the Oscars can be somewhat biased, Hobbit (which will probably look fantastic) seems the more likelier choice.
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M Z. on 9/23/12 at 05:59 PM
Interesting list, however, it's difficult to say whether Lincoln will be really good. Recent Spielberg's films are good but not excellent.
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Eldest2005 on 9/23/12 at 06:07 PM
True, Spielberg has lost a lot of his touch ever since making classics like the first three Indiana Jones, Schindler's List, Saving Private Ryan, and the first Jurassic Park. And he had some not so good movies like War of the Worlds and Indiana Jones 4, but he still makes some good movies. Plus, when you look at past Oscar history, historical films are very popular with them. Just look at movies like Braveheart, Gladiator, King's Speech, and the aforementioned WWII movies.
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Zeppo1 on 9/23/12 at 08:31 PM
Interesting list. I think Bill Murray has a decnt shot at an acting nomination playing FDR in "Hyde Park on the Hudson". We could have 2 presidents nominated! Also I think John Hawkes has a good chance with "The Sessions" in the Best Actor race.
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Saetre on 9/24/12 at 07:33 AM
Interesting. I think Lincoln will sweep some awards as well.
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ray on 9/24/12 at 10:34 AM
don't you think it's a bit early for this prediction... I doubt you have seen the real contenders yet...
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Joshua on 9/25/12 at 12:17 PM
Nice list, though I'm not so sure that Lincoln will win so many awards.
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Uttiyo Sarkar on 9/26/12 at 05:22 PM
You seem to rate Lincoln very high, so Do I. But The Master and Moonrise Kingdom will also be possiblities.
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Eldest2005 on 9/26/12 at 08:21 PM
Lincoln looks like the movie that will most likely sweep the Oscars, unless it isn't as greatly recieved as I expect it to be. Movies based on historical events or figures usually get the most attention.
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Uttiyo Sarkar on 9/27/12 at 03:10 PM
Agreed. Although The Master will give tough competition with Moonrise Kingdom and Django Unchained.
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Bram S. on 9/29/12 at 10:19 PM
Really interesting list. However, I think that Silver Linings Playbook will get nominated for best picture, and I think that The Master will win best picture.
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Cloud on 9/29/12 at 10:30 PM
Good list. But The Master I believe will be this year's Best Picture. I haven't seen Lincoln, though, so that might change. The Academy can be too biased, so Les Miserables will probably be a huge contender, even if it doesn't seem to be so to serious movie-goers.
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ap sirius on 9/30/12 at 07:08 AM
Iknow , I know, this is a dark horse, but Pierce Gagnon's performance in Looper is what supporting acter awards are all about. He elevates the second half of the film.
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Eldest2005 on 9/30/12 at 08:49 AM
True, he did a very good performance for someone his age. But I doubt that he will get a nomination. There weren't any Oscar nominations for kids as far as I know of in the past.
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ap sirius on 9/30/12 at 01:04 PM
Joey Starrett,Mary Tilford, Mary Badham,Justin Henry, Quin Cummings, Haley Joel Osmond,Tatum Oneal, Shirley Temple and Abigail Breslin as well as dozens more, were nominated as kids. Some of them actually won. True there is no category for kids but oscar loves to reward good performances in the supporting category....good blog mate
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Eldest2005 on 9/30/12 at 02:37 PM
Oh, that's right. I forgot about Haley Joel Osment's nomination for The Sixth Sense. The other ones I don't know. I guess I didn't know as much as I thought I did.
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Adam P. on 10/08/12 at 06:05 PM
good choices
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Elek M. on 10/18/12 at 10:03 PM
I'm sorry, I know everyone is going to hate me for the speel I'm about to go on, but honestly? I think Lincoln looks fucking awful other than the fact that Daniel Day Lewis is in it. As soon as I heard Steven Spielberg was doing it I thought: "okay, it'll probably be pretty good". But then that godawful trailer came out and just...wow. I feel like Spielberg is far up is own ass nowadays that he can't even see his own feet anymore. I mean all he did for like a dozen or so film and television projects was world war two movies. Which were good, don't get me wrong-but all of his movies just have the same overdone and completely stale tone. Some would argue and say that's what makes him, him and all directors are like that which I agree with to a certain point. But come on, Spielberg's style has by this point just become a bad caricature of itself. Which is why I severely hope that Lincoln doesn't just win everything at the Oscars this year, because even if the film is radically different than what I am expecting it to be now, there are still so many better choices than it. Sure, I love period pieces just as much as the next movie junkie but come on, this is getting ridiculous- every time someone makes a semi-decent period piece it gets completely blown out of proportion and people act like its the defining film of the year or something. Anyway, like I said- I'm ranting here, I don't expect anyone to agree with me, it's just my opinion.
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eshwar_movies on 11/01/12 at 08:32 PM
Do you have a time machine?
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D.D on 11/04/12 at 01:48 AM
Really rooting for ParaNorman to get it, although I have yet to see Wreck-It Ralph or Rise of the Guardians.
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Cody Fairless-Lee on 11/06/12 at 06:28 AM
Didn't you hear? The Academy didn't like TDKR! So, they won't nominate that movie for any category!!!!
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Adam P. on 11/08/12 at 05:46 PM
Um why is The Hunger Games even in the best music one the music is badevn if there ius only about to songs int eh whole thing but other then that oh and i would give best animated film to ParaNorman it would be a good listr good preditions :)
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